Post by Rog on Nov 20, 2017 2:21:21 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to last year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- Easily, again, coming in at #1 is Paul Azirin, a 6'4" small forward with good notes. He has great starting ratings and if he is to be great, hes going to need to have those notes used quick. Funny enough Paul Azirin struggled somewhat in pre draft camps, only scoring 25 points a game and 10 rebounds as well. He is obviously the best player in the draft but he isn't a perfect prospect by any stretch of the imagination. It is worth noting that he has the lowest grade for the best player in the draft, including Lebron James Jr who was figured using the old system, a system that produced somewhat lower scores as a whole I feel. Good prospect, but not an elite one if you ask me.
- Coming in at number 2 is a guy with a fun skill set and a fun name as well in Brooklyn Vick. His score of 61.0 is low for a #2 pick as well, in fact he would have come in at #10 last year. He may or may not have draft notes, I submitted some lately, but he comes in with better offensive ratings and similar other ratings to top point guard ratings, he needs love in his outside, but otherwise looks like a fun point guard otherwise.
- The rest of the top 6 is separated by a very thin margin, from 60.5 of Booboo McAdoo to 60 of Ernest Schmidt. Booboo McAdoo has a decent skillset, but his age really sets him back some I think, and I dont think his notes are great. Goose Tatum after the show he put on in pre draft camps looks incredibly impressive and I think I'd consider him at 2, despite some flaws. He also potentially has notes but as they haven't been approved and posted, I don't want to speak on them. John Beckam looks like a generic point prospect and still shows up as #5 overall. This draft really does suck. And of course, Ernest Schmidt at #6 at the center position. His height, defense, and lack of notes really makes me doubt his prospects. But he has a solid base game and who knows if he can potentially have some potential.
- The most interesting prospects in the top 10 after Azirin are actually at 7 and 8 though, with two stretch bigs named Pierre Thiolon and Lino Marks. I like them in this draft a lot, and probably both guys go in the lotto, but it is interesting to point out that they would be 17th and 20th in last yars draft. Either last year was super deep, it was, or this draft is incredibly weak, to be decided.
- Already a mock has been posted and Ed Mikan, with his notes and brotherly name, was their projected #2. This draft analysis does not agree. He is 16th here. I think he is better than that for sure, but not #2 good. His notes and ratings do paint a rosy picture, and I wish I could get this to show those notes but alas here we are.
- Neon Boudeaux might actually be the most interesting prospect in the entire draft with his incredible big ratings but complete with F outside and D handles. I think he will go top 10, but here with his huge flaws he is rated #14. He also has some decent notes, not great but good enough. But his size and abilities that will remind people of Peter John Ramos will get him drafted him and maybe he will be worth it.
- Worth noting as well to end the rambling section, there is no players staying overseas and there are not a lot of international prospects at all. Hopefully we get a big class next yar.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: John Beckman at #5, Ernest Schmidt at #6, Walt Budko at #15.
- Sleeper predictions: Pierre Thiolon at #7, Dezman Briscoe at #12, Ed Mikan at #16.
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