2032 Draft Analysis(Featuring Rog and Charles)
Apr 30, 2018 0:56:39 GMT
A. Silver and Charles like this
Post by Rog on Apr 30, 2018 0:56:39 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- With the lowest score(Though Azirin is now the #2 worst) for a #1 pick since we began doing this, Everett Case comes in at #1. Case comes into the league with a solid game for a PG with B- outside, B+ handles, B defense, and C rebounds. The issue is he comes also with C- inside and no notes to off set those issues. He had serious scoring issues in pre draft camps. He did rebound well and pass the ball well, and had a huge advantage in the fact he only averaged 2 turnovers per game, so I think it is safe to say there will be very mixed reactions to him.
- By the slimmest of margins Pop Gates comes in at number 2. Literally by .1 of a difference here. The biggest issue here is 6'3" and 195 pounds. That is his height and weight. He also has C+ rebounding. I don't expect him ever come in and be dominant, but for a number 2 guy he is looking awfully flawed as well. And he also had one of the worst predraft camps of a top 3 pick I have ever seen. Didn't score well, didn't rebound well, didn't block shots, just not a good showing. His notes are oddly specific and I don't seem them as a huge bonus.
- Rounding out the top 5 are probably the guys I think should go #1 through 3. At #3 is Ed Macauley, a properly sized scoring power forward with rebounding issues. He was All-League First in predraft camps with 32 points, 10 rebounds, and had decently high steals. His biggest issue here is obviously his rebounding and also had turnover issues, most in the camps as well. No notes either. At #4 is Jack George, probably my favorite player in the draft given point guards are how you win titles and George is the best. George still only sits only .5 off the #1 spot, so we're awfully clumped here. Given he is 19 years old with decent size, C inside instead of C-, the only reason he isn't #1 is that he has B Potential instead of A, so you have to somewhat worry about his top end peak. But overall, solid prospect who had a good pre draft camp. Forest Sale comes in at the last guy over 63. He is yet another undersized PF. He scored well in pre draft camps, didn't rebound well and didn't average stocks. Turnovers are an absolute issue, but overall he is a solid prospect and is only 19 as well with A potential showing.
- The next two players are two more guys I think are more interesting than the top 2. At #6 is Anfernee Simmons , a shooting guard who can shoot the shit out of the ball. He is a bit on the thin sign and is probably a bit weak, but its hard to tell exactly how his game is when he wasn't on a pre draft camp team. He has notes to increase his strength pretty solidly, but nothing else. He is a solid prospect and wings are immensely important in FBB, especially ones that start out with a shot like his. At #7 is Slim Wintermute. He was 3rd in rebounding and was All-Defense in pre draft camps. He is a solid piece who has some flaws, his rebounding will have some issues translating to the big leagues and who knows how defense translates either. But everything points to a good prospect.
- Internationals are somewhat light here. Dino Meneghin is the top player at #8. He is a solid player at 19 years old. He'll spend a season overseas but he has good size at 6'9 and 250 pounds, B defense and rebounding, does show B- inside as well. He is a great prospect and given his defense and rebounding ratings, I'd take him in top 5 most likely. Number 9 is Kresimir Cosic from Yugoslavia. He shows B B- scoring ratings and B+ rebounding, is 19 years old, and will be in NBN first thing. He could be really good, but his defense and size and possible strength issues might hold him back. Filip Petrus comes in at #13 and has very average ratings beyond his B defense. He is only 18 so maybe he ends up better than he looks, but he is all potential and no present skill. Those are the top 3, with nothing much more to speak of heavily.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Everett Case at #1, Pop Gates at #2, Filip Petrusev at #13
- Sleeper predictions: Anfernee Simmons at #6, Dino Meneghin at #7, Nassir Little at #10, Salah MMejri at #19.
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