Charles and Rog 2026 Draft Analysis
Sept 13, 2017 3:25:49 GMT
A. Silver, buckeyeballa10, and 1 more like this
Post by Rog on Sept 13, 2017 3:25:49 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
NewAge: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to last year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that.
Previous Versions:
2025
Without further ado, here is the class:
Note: Please remember to subtract a number from each ranking for their actual ranking. No player is missing here. I don't know what exactly I did differently last year to subtract the top column to get it right, but I'm losing my mind right now and I gave up. Oh well.
Analysis
- Like last year, the top 2 are pretty clear. At the top spot is Jayden Nicholson, a 20 year old power forward. He holds a good sized advantage over 22 year old shooting guard Jordan Toles. Here is where the new age addition somewhat furthered the gap. These two were much closer without that, a whole point closer in fact.
- Number 3 and 4 somewhat each highlight two issues with this pure ratings(now age too) analysis of the players. First at number 3 you have 19 year old, 6'5" center Joe Lapchick. He looks really solid to me, although very raw. However, some believe 6'5" is going to be an issue, and John Schommer is showing that to potentially be the case(I'd argue his lack of athleticism plays a bigger part there, and I still think he ends up really good, but I digress). We do not have a way here to show size, finding that will be big later on for fine tuning that if we decide to go that route.
- Number 4, Andy Phillip, also shows a bit of a gap in our analysis. We don't take into consideration notes either, due to the subjective nature of how good or bad they might be, and Phillip is no different. If you believe passing is integral in a player, then Phillips's notes are huge. If not, they aren't that great. However, he does have notes and that will effect his draft position some. Notes make a player more fun to camp.
- Rounding out the top 6 are two very, very different players with my opinions hugely varying on both. I think Jesus Shuttleworth with his notes, deserves a top 3 pick. However, his lack of defense and somewhat lack of top end ability other than scoring, brought him down to 5, which is still hugely respectable. At number 6 is Gordon Aitchison, who I think would be a mistake in the top 5 given his C- inside and C+ rebounding for a big. He did jump some when we added his age, given he is 18, which is a huge plus to me. So he should be a fun player to monitor.
- Not to talk about the entire top 10, but Khoi Thurmon will end up probably taking a big tumble. Hes the best all around point guard, with his inside being C+ versus Phillips C, meaning he should end up the better scorer all things considered. However, his notes are PURELY negative and could be disastrous to his long term chances of turning out. Buyer beware.
- Seriously, notes are a lot of fun so look at Gregor Fucka at 18, Matt Wright at 10, the "Ace" brothers will most likely both end up with notes, one with potentially two notes. I'm hard pressed to recommend anyone with C defense and D- handles, but Moses Guthrie's notes could drastically help the handles flaw. I like Amirhossein Rezaeifa's notes a lot, if you can find the cash and an Iranian, he could end up being a lot better than his rating would indicate here.
- There are some fun and flawed players in this draft, something we've seen a lot lately. Stefano Mancinelli at 11 could be a really good defensive player, but I think he'll struggle long term offensively. Jyare Davis at 16 has a lot going for him, but his C- outside for a perimeter player actually makes him borderline undraftable to me. Georginho de Paula at 34 has some really nice ratings, but fell hard with him having C potential. And of course the short post players, everywhere.
- Coming next are my bust and sleeper predictions. These are simply players I think are bad and good buys at the position listed here. Obviously #13 in the draft isn't really a bust, but its the best word to describe the fact that I don't think that player is lotto worthy. And for example #7 isn't exactly a sleeper, its just the best way to say I think a guy should go higher than that.
- Bust predictions: Joe Lapchick(#3), Gordon Aitchison(#6), Paul Huston(#13)
- Sleeper predictions: Khoi Thurmon(#8, if his notes don't kill him), Gregor Fucka(#18), Glen Selbo(#23)
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