Post by ucfinfan86 on Jan 29, 2019 12:06:54 GMT
Rog and I are going to put out a season preview for each division over the next couple of days. We each are listing the placement within the division and if we think the team will make the playoffs:
My analysis is on top, Rog on the bottom:
Pacers (UCF: #1, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #1, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Dick McGuire
SG Bill Sharman
SF Paul Arizin
PF Alton Tomlin
C Willie Naulls
Key Gene Dyker
Key John Arguile
Key Red Klotz
A constant theme throughout much of these previews, the Pacers remained pretty much intact this offseason. They resign McGuire on a very nice, flat $12.1mil deal. He’s turned into a really good player and the contract should be good value for at least the next few seasons. Arizin/Sharman duo remains strong for the 8th straight year. Arizin was shut out of awards last year for the first since 2031 despite having another phenomenal year. Naulls development is the key for them to take the next step and get back to the ECF. The bench lacks depth beyond Dyker, but if Naulls can build off a good sophomore season, he could give them the little extra they need.
The Pacers won the Central last year with 49 wins in a down year for a normally sturdy division. The Pacers return basically the same exact roster, with no big losses or gains. Naulis is about the only thing you can expect any changes from, as you'd have to expect him to be a bit better in his 23 year old season, but other than that they should be exactly the same team. The Central didn't really change either, other than adding Kareem Queeley to the rebuilding Hornets, so you can't expect more wins from a weaker division either. Just feel they'll be okay, win nearly 50 wins and compete in the playoffs out in the East.
Cavs (UCF: #2, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #2, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Bob Davies
SG Belus Smawley
SF Joe Marshall
PF Matt Wright
C Essome Miyem
Key Harlan Page
Key Mike Novak
Key Connie Rea
The Cavs really struggled with injuries last year and I think they were a better team and what their final record showed. The depth on this year’s team is very weak again though outside of Harlan Page. This is probably the last year of the Marshall/Davies pairings, with both having 1 year remaining that I’d expect to be bought out. They had a historic run together, but it’s time to rebuild after this season and they should have an almost clean cap sheet and all of their picks moving forward. This year though, I expect them to use cash to try and improve the bench and make one last push. Neither Marshall nor Davies really declined in TC and Smawley provided a huge scoring punch that they really needed. Wright was a solid MLE signing who should be a solid 1 year stop gap at PF who won’t take many shots away from the wings.
I think if this was any other GM in the league this roster would be much, much lower. However this is Jcog and Joe Marshall is amazing, even at 35. Also Bob Davies is still really good. Outside of that, Miyem still can block some shots, rebound okay and hit some threes, but probably shouldn't start anymore. Matt Wright basically got same, with slightly better actual defense. The big question mark for me is Belus Smawley. First of all where did he come from? The answer is from the G-League, but more importantly he played really well in a position that the Cavaliers were pretty desperate for talent. I think if the Smawley takes a big step forward, the Cavlaiers might be able to overtake the Pacers, but either way it should be a very tight race.
Hawks (UCF: #3, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #3, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Larry Costello
SG Manuel Raga
SF Puggy Bell
PF Slim Wintermute
C Clyde Lovellette
Key Andrzej Pluta
Key John Butler
Key George Kaftan
The Hawks squeezed into the final playoff spot last season and I would expect them to build off that and have a better season. All of their starting 5 is between the ages of 24 & 27. This is a very strong defensive team and it starts with the Slim/Clyde frontcourt. Clyde never developed into the inside-outside threat I thought he would become, but he’s a great defender and good scorer. Costello took a leap last year that I wasn’t expecting. He’s not the typical pure PG and won’t rack up a ton of assists, but he doesn’t turn the ball over and is a good efficient scorer. Puggy Bell and Manual Raga will determine how good they are. Clyde/Slim/Costello are all good scorers, but they need Raga or Bell to really step up and provide another 20 ppg scoring option to keep up. Depth is a concern as well as they are relying on 1st and 2nd year players Butler and Pluta for key roles.
The Hawks surprised some last year by sneaking into the playoffs as the 8 seed. I do believe there is some room for some improvement; Costello is 24, Raga is 24, Bell is 25, Wintermute is 26, and Lovelette is 27. My biggest issue with this roster is that Raga, Bell, and their bigs are not good shooters. They will struggle as long as they struggle to hit the three. In fact last year they only made 6.7 threes a game, taking the third fewest in the league. That will continue to bring them down from being a contender. And for that I will hold them below the Cavaliers as well. There is some serious talent here though.
Raptors (UCF: #4, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #4, Playoffs: No)
PG Ja Morant
SG Miki Berkovich
SF Jordan Toles
PF Forest Sale
C Ed Macauley
Key John Issacs
Key Killan Hayes
Key Tyrese Samuel
The Raptors have 2 really good young players in PG Ja Morant and SG Miki Berkovich and saw an opportunity to grab one of the best players in NBN history in Jordan Toles for really cheap. There’s a group of about 4-5 teams that I could see making the playoffs, but I like the Raptors the best right now. The backcourt will be the team’s strength and it has plenty of depth with Isaacs and Hayes. They need to figure out their front court. They have a couple of PF options in Samuel, Macauley and Sale, but none of them should really be playing center. They are going to need to outscore teams because I don’t think they have the rebounding & shotblocking down low. Without their first this year and a clean cap sheet moving forward, I’d expect frosty to be dangling Larry Brown and cap space next year to look for a center upgrade.
I think this is actually quite low for the talent to be found here, Toles is still a top 10-12 player in the league in my opinion and Isaacs is very underrated. I also think Miki Berkovich will end up a stud. However, just like the Hawks beyond Isaacs and Toles, the Raptors will struggle to shoot. I'm also not sold on the idea that Sale is a starter on a contending team. Those flaws aside, the Raptors should take the biggest leap, and if things fall the right way could end up in serious GMOTY contention. For my prediction, they win 42 games and just miss the playoffs.
Pistons (UCF: #5, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #6, Playoffs: No)
PG Trae Young
SG Hot Rod Hundley
SF Djordje Pazin
PF Vern Mikkelsen
C Bastien Vautier
Key Tyler Ringgold
Key Dave Gambee
Key Sefano Mancinelli
The Pistons are dealing with some real life family issues and unfortunately it cost them this offseason. They were over the cap, but they missed out on adding an MLE and really need a starting SG. Trae Young is a stud and has won back-to-back All NBN 3rd team. Hundley and Pazin both remain strong looking prospects and hopefully for Yourkers, he’s able to continue building them up. Down low, Ringgold is one of the better values in the league at $2.5mil. Mikkelsen is one of the best bigs in the league. This team still has a lot of talent and if I knew Yourkers would be around to manage it I think it’s a definite playoff team, but because of the uncertainty I think they will probably end up missing the playoffs.
I think of all the teams I am going to shit on in this particular article, the Pistons have the biggest room to grow. Trae Young is a true star, a 25 point and 11 assist guy who can defend, and that can take you far. Find the right GM to take Young and push him as far as he can go, and this might be a playoff team. They also have 23 year old potential breakout superstar from his preseason stats in Djordje Pazin. He and Trae Young could combine to average 50 points, and they have a solidly talented front court as well. Problem is they have zero bench, in any sense of the word, and they will start an absolute scrub at shooting guard. FInd the right GM to find the right shooting guard, and they could make some noise, but for this article they are a 35 win team at best.
Bucks (UCF: #6, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #5, Playoffs: No)
PG Ivo Daneu
SG Zion Wade
SF Jahsemar Olembe
PF Don Barksdale
C Robert Williams
Key Nelson Demarco
Key Dolph Schayes
Key Odie Spears
The Bucks have been in a bad spot since joining a couple seasons ago and having Godfather trade away all his future picks. They finally get their first back starting in 2041, so I’d expect this to be the last season they try and compete before rebuilding. That being said, holy shit that Daneu contract is crazy. I’m probably the biggest Daneu fan in the league and the last 3-4 years of that contract are going to be killer. He probably would have been able to retain Daneu at half the price or only have gone 4-5 years instead of the full 7. All that being said, I think this is a borderline playoff team. It’s essentially the same team as last season. Barksdale is one of the best PFs in the league. Daneu and Wade are both solid guard options and Demarco is a very nice value. They still have a huge hole at SF, but have some alright depth. They need to somehow try and be as good as they can this year, but still have an eye towards a full rebuild next season.
I just want to throw up at the Ivo Daneu contract. Its so bad, holy crap. A guy who will never and has never been a stud will get paid 25 millions at age 35. Thats insane. Whats worse, they had a perfect replacement for him on their roster in Demarco. Enough of all that, this roster is yet another team that will struggle due to its lack of shooting, with Daneu being the only elite shooter. Their bigggest strength will be its bigs, and Wade being solid. There just isn't enough here to justify me putting them any higher. They don't have a star, they don't have a strength, and they are fill of holes.
Bulls (UCF: #7, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #7, Playoffs: No)
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Willy Steveniers
SF Hal Greer
PF Joe Fulks
C Ron Livingston
Key Aldo Ossola
Key Tryggvi Hlinason
Key Michael Foster
Not sure what to really say here. I think it’s a fun idea to have teams be able to submit 1 trade offer a year. Will be interesting to watch if teams are able to take advantage of the CPU with bad contracts or steal their players (EDIT: Already have). This team has 2 good veterans in SGA and Fulks and a couple of interesting young guys in Foster, Greer, Steveniers, and Buckhorn.
There isn't much to talk about this team or the next team. The Bulls have a possible future star in Hal Greer, an underrated point in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and some decent overall young talent, but their best player will be an aging power forward in Joe Fulks. The talent at certain areas might end them winning 30 games and losing out on a top pick, but they will not be good, do not mistake.
Hornets (UCF: #8, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #8, Playoffs: No)
PG Tal Brody
SG Kareem Queeley
SF Yury Korneyev
PF Teofilo Cruz
C Kofi Cockburn
Key Don Ohl
Key Kenyon Martin
Key Maury King
The Hornets have a very fun rebuilding roster and is exactly the way I want to do it when I rebuild again. They still have 4 1sts upcoming this year also. I’m expecting Queeley to be dealt as soon as Rog can find a partner. There aren’t any straight up tanking teams with no talent on their roster to begin the year, so Queeley shouldn’t hurt their tank too badly. Rog took a lot of swings with teenagers in the draft. I thought Brody was a very strong prospect and I personally had him #3. Cruz was another very solid pick who went about where I projected and had a solid TC. The Deni selection was the questionable one in my mind. I know he’s taking a chance on a 17 year old having great TC, but I thought there were some strong prospects still available at 6. Overall it’s a long process to rebuild this way and you have to be ready to commit 2-3 months for it to pay off, but I just love building with young players, watching them hopefully improve in TC and camping them and apparently Rog agrees.
This team is so young, with only one good player currently in Queeley. They should end up moving Queeley and they should end up winning at best 15 games. We like the talent here, but it certainly isn't winning any games here. There is just not a lot to say here other than the fact that this team will be very, very bad. Very bad indeed.
My analysis is on top, Rog on the bottom:
Pacers (UCF: #1, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #1, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Dick McGuire
SG Bill Sharman
SF Paul Arizin
PF Alton Tomlin
C Willie Naulls
Key Gene Dyker
Key John Arguile
Key Red Klotz
A constant theme throughout much of these previews, the Pacers remained pretty much intact this offseason. They resign McGuire on a very nice, flat $12.1mil deal. He’s turned into a really good player and the contract should be good value for at least the next few seasons. Arizin/Sharman duo remains strong for the 8th straight year. Arizin was shut out of awards last year for the first since 2031 despite having another phenomenal year. Naulls development is the key for them to take the next step and get back to the ECF. The bench lacks depth beyond Dyker, but if Naulls can build off a good sophomore season, he could give them the little extra they need.
The Pacers won the Central last year with 49 wins in a down year for a normally sturdy division. The Pacers return basically the same exact roster, with no big losses or gains. Naulis is about the only thing you can expect any changes from, as you'd have to expect him to be a bit better in his 23 year old season, but other than that they should be exactly the same team. The Central didn't really change either, other than adding Kareem Queeley to the rebuilding Hornets, so you can't expect more wins from a weaker division either. Just feel they'll be okay, win nearly 50 wins and compete in the playoffs out in the East.
Cavs (UCF: #2, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #2, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Bob Davies
SG Belus Smawley
SF Joe Marshall
PF Matt Wright
C Essome Miyem
Key Harlan Page
Key Mike Novak
Key Connie Rea
The Cavs really struggled with injuries last year and I think they were a better team and what their final record showed. The depth on this year’s team is very weak again though outside of Harlan Page. This is probably the last year of the Marshall/Davies pairings, with both having 1 year remaining that I’d expect to be bought out. They had a historic run together, but it’s time to rebuild after this season and they should have an almost clean cap sheet and all of their picks moving forward. This year though, I expect them to use cash to try and improve the bench and make one last push. Neither Marshall nor Davies really declined in TC and Smawley provided a huge scoring punch that they really needed. Wright was a solid MLE signing who should be a solid 1 year stop gap at PF who won’t take many shots away from the wings.
I think if this was any other GM in the league this roster would be much, much lower. However this is Jcog and Joe Marshall is amazing, even at 35. Also Bob Davies is still really good. Outside of that, Miyem still can block some shots, rebound okay and hit some threes, but probably shouldn't start anymore. Matt Wright basically got same, with slightly better actual defense. The big question mark for me is Belus Smawley. First of all where did he come from? The answer is from the G-League, but more importantly he played really well in a position that the Cavaliers were pretty desperate for talent. I think if the Smawley takes a big step forward, the Cavlaiers might be able to overtake the Pacers, but either way it should be a very tight race.
Hawks (UCF: #3, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #3, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Larry Costello
SG Manuel Raga
SF Puggy Bell
PF Slim Wintermute
C Clyde Lovellette
Key Andrzej Pluta
Key John Butler
Key George Kaftan
The Hawks squeezed into the final playoff spot last season and I would expect them to build off that and have a better season. All of their starting 5 is between the ages of 24 & 27. This is a very strong defensive team and it starts with the Slim/Clyde frontcourt. Clyde never developed into the inside-outside threat I thought he would become, but he’s a great defender and good scorer. Costello took a leap last year that I wasn’t expecting. He’s not the typical pure PG and won’t rack up a ton of assists, but he doesn’t turn the ball over and is a good efficient scorer. Puggy Bell and Manual Raga will determine how good they are. Clyde/Slim/Costello are all good scorers, but they need Raga or Bell to really step up and provide another 20 ppg scoring option to keep up. Depth is a concern as well as they are relying on 1st and 2nd year players Butler and Pluta for key roles.
The Hawks surprised some last year by sneaking into the playoffs as the 8 seed. I do believe there is some room for some improvement; Costello is 24, Raga is 24, Bell is 25, Wintermute is 26, and Lovelette is 27. My biggest issue with this roster is that Raga, Bell, and their bigs are not good shooters. They will struggle as long as they struggle to hit the three. In fact last year they only made 6.7 threes a game, taking the third fewest in the league. That will continue to bring them down from being a contender. And for that I will hold them below the Cavaliers as well. There is some serious talent here though.
Raptors (UCF: #4, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #4, Playoffs: No)
PG Ja Morant
SG Miki Berkovich
SF Jordan Toles
PF Forest Sale
C Ed Macauley
Key John Issacs
Key Killan Hayes
Key Tyrese Samuel
The Raptors have 2 really good young players in PG Ja Morant and SG Miki Berkovich and saw an opportunity to grab one of the best players in NBN history in Jordan Toles for really cheap. There’s a group of about 4-5 teams that I could see making the playoffs, but I like the Raptors the best right now. The backcourt will be the team’s strength and it has plenty of depth with Isaacs and Hayes. They need to figure out their front court. They have a couple of PF options in Samuel, Macauley and Sale, but none of them should really be playing center. They are going to need to outscore teams because I don’t think they have the rebounding & shotblocking down low. Without their first this year and a clean cap sheet moving forward, I’d expect frosty to be dangling Larry Brown and cap space next year to look for a center upgrade.
I think this is actually quite low for the talent to be found here, Toles is still a top 10-12 player in the league in my opinion and Isaacs is very underrated. I also think Miki Berkovich will end up a stud. However, just like the Hawks beyond Isaacs and Toles, the Raptors will struggle to shoot. I'm also not sold on the idea that Sale is a starter on a contending team. Those flaws aside, the Raptors should take the biggest leap, and if things fall the right way could end up in serious GMOTY contention. For my prediction, they win 42 games and just miss the playoffs.
Pistons (UCF: #5, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #6, Playoffs: No)
PG Trae Young
SG Hot Rod Hundley
SF Djordje Pazin
PF Vern Mikkelsen
C Bastien Vautier
Key Tyler Ringgold
Key Dave Gambee
Key Sefano Mancinelli
The Pistons are dealing with some real life family issues and unfortunately it cost them this offseason. They were over the cap, but they missed out on adding an MLE and really need a starting SG. Trae Young is a stud and has won back-to-back All NBN 3rd team. Hundley and Pazin both remain strong looking prospects and hopefully for Yourkers, he’s able to continue building them up. Down low, Ringgold is one of the better values in the league at $2.5mil. Mikkelsen is one of the best bigs in the league. This team still has a lot of talent and if I knew Yourkers would be around to manage it I think it’s a definite playoff team, but because of the uncertainty I think they will probably end up missing the playoffs.
I think of all the teams I am going to shit on in this particular article, the Pistons have the biggest room to grow. Trae Young is a true star, a 25 point and 11 assist guy who can defend, and that can take you far. Find the right GM to take Young and push him as far as he can go, and this might be a playoff team. They also have 23 year old potential breakout superstar from his preseason stats in Djordje Pazin. He and Trae Young could combine to average 50 points, and they have a solidly talented front court as well. Problem is they have zero bench, in any sense of the word, and they will start an absolute scrub at shooting guard. FInd the right GM to find the right shooting guard, and they could make some noise, but for this article they are a 35 win team at best.
Bucks (UCF: #6, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #5, Playoffs: No)
PG Ivo Daneu
SG Zion Wade
SF Jahsemar Olembe
PF Don Barksdale
C Robert Williams
Key Nelson Demarco
Key Dolph Schayes
Key Odie Spears
The Bucks have been in a bad spot since joining a couple seasons ago and having Godfather trade away all his future picks. They finally get their first back starting in 2041, so I’d expect this to be the last season they try and compete before rebuilding. That being said, holy shit that Daneu contract is crazy. I’m probably the biggest Daneu fan in the league and the last 3-4 years of that contract are going to be killer. He probably would have been able to retain Daneu at half the price or only have gone 4-5 years instead of the full 7. All that being said, I think this is a borderline playoff team. It’s essentially the same team as last season. Barksdale is one of the best PFs in the league. Daneu and Wade are both solid guard options and Demarco is a very nice value. They still have a huge hole at SF, but have some alright depth. They need to somehow try and be as good as they can this year, but still have an eye towards a full rebuild next season.
I just want to throw up at the Ivo Daneu contract. Its so bad, holy crap. A guy who will never and has never been a stud will get paid 25 millions at age 35. Thats insane. Whats worse, they had a perfect replacement for him on their roster in Demarco. Enough of all that, this roster is yet another team that will struggle due to its lack of shooting, with Daneu being the only elite shooter. Their bigggest strength will be its bigs, and Wade being solid. There just isn't enough here to justify me putting them any higher. They don't have a star, they don't have a strength, and they are fill of holes.
Bulls (UCF: #7, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #7, Playoffs: No)
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Willy Steveniers
SF Hal Greer
PF Joe Fulks
C Ron Livingston
Key Aldo Ossola
Key Tryggvi Hlinason
Key Michael Foster
Not sure what to really say here. I think it’s a fun idea to have teams be able to submit 1 trade offer a year. Will be interesting to watch if teams are able to take advantage of the CPU with bad contracts or steal their players (EDIT: Already have). This team has 2 good veterans in SGA and Fulks and a couple of interesting young guys in Foster, Greer, Steveniers, and Buckhorn.
There isn't much to talk about this team or the next team. The Bulls have a possible future star in Hal Greer, an underrated point in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and some decent overall young talent, but their best player will be an aging power forward in Joe Fulks. The talent at certain areas might end them winning 30 games and losing out on a top pick, but they will not be good, do not mistake.
Hornets (UCF: #8, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #8, Playoffs: No)
PG Tal Brody
SG Kareem Queeley
SF Yury Korneyev
PF Teofilo Cruz
C Kofi Cockburn
Key Don Ohl
Key Kenyon Martin
Key Maury King
The Hornets have a very fun rebuilding roster and is exactly the way I want to do it when I rebuild again. They still have 4 1sts upcoming this year also. I’m expecting Queeley to be dealt as soon as Rog can find a partner. There aren’t any straight up tanking teams with no talent on their roster to begin the year, so Queeley shouldn’t hurt their tank too badly. Rog took a lot of swings with teenagers in the draft. I thought Brody was a very strong prospect and I personally had him #3. Cruz was another very solid pick who went about where I projected and had a solid TC. The Deni selection was the questionable one in my mind. I know he’s taking a chance on a 17 year old having great TC, but I thought there were some strong prospects still available at 6. Overall it’s a long process to rebuild this way and you have to be ready to commit 2-3 months for it to pay off, but I just love building with young players, watching them hopefully improve in TC and camping them and apparently Rog agrees.
This team is so young, with only one good player currently in Queeley. They should end up moving Queeley and they should end up winning at best 15 games. We like the talent here, but it certainly isn't winning any games here. There is just not a lot to say here other than the fact that this team will be very, very bad. Very bad indeed.
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