2024 Draft Preview #1: Tier Rankings
Jan 10, 2024 0:19:22 GMT
SpikeLee14, mcmuslim, and 1 more like this
Post by Rog on Jan 10, 2024 0:19:22 GMT
We are rapidly approaching the end of the season and by proxy our first draft class. As a class, the top end of this class is decently weak but it is very deep in players you can expect to be contributors down the road. To start, here is a reminder on how these articles work; I am telling you the most likely best case scenario, not a prediction on where a player ends up but the if they hit the best case scenario, this is the most likely spot they end up. However, they can reach above or below their tiers in the end, so don't take this as a prediction and look at the text for a true look at a player.
Potential All-Time Greats
Alexandre Sarr C 7'1'' 215 19 B- C+ B- B- B- A
Nikola Topic PG 6'6'' 200 19 C+ C B+ B- C- A
Nikola Topic PG 6'6'' 200 19 C+ C B+ B- C- A
- First up in our class is the guy I think should universally go number one in our class, Alexandre Sarr. A 7'1 center with a playstyle more closely resembling a wing, Sarr brings skill and finesse to the position in similar ways as Wemby and Chet. At this point in his development, Sarr's best skillset is on the boards and in the paint. He knows how to use his size and athleticism to impact shots and impair the passing lanes. He has a huge wingspan and anticipation that even if his offensive game never truly develops, Sarr will have a spot on any roster he wants to go to due to his ability to impact defensively and on the boards. He is also a top notch passer with a faceup game that makes that part of offensive arsenal that much more dangerous. Sarr has an upper peak of 20 points, 13 rebounds, 4 stocks that would put him in the Hall of Fame day one if he can do that over a stretch of time. His biggest impediment to being an All-Time Great is the question of whether he can actually get awards over Chet, Wemby, and early on Jokic.
- There is only one guy in this class I could even see anyone considering going #1 in the draft over Sarr and that is Nikola Topic and only if you need a point guard. Offensively there isn't much more raw of a prospect than Topic and at 19 he hasn't really figured out how to use his quickness and skill at the basket to translate to points on a consistent basis. He is an elite playmaker who will also turn it over a bunch early on as he feels his way through a more talented league. Defensively he should end up being elite though the quickest players in the league will give him problems. He has to develop his offensive game to reach this level, otherwise hes going to be a point guard that bounces from place to place, allured by his passing but let down by his offensive game that could limit a team's ceiling.
Potential Superstars
D.J. Wagner. SG 6'4'' 192 20 B- B- B- C- C- A
Ron Holland SF 6'8'' 200 19 B- C+ C C+ C A
Izan Almansa*** PF 6'10'' 211 18 C+ C- C C C A
Justin Edwards SF 6'7'' 190 20 C+ C C C+ C- A
Dillon Mitchell SF 6'7'' 200 21 B- C C C+ C+ A
Isaiah Collier PG 6'3'' 190 19 C+ C+ B- C C- A
Ryan Dunn. SF 6'8'' 216 21 C+ C C- B C A
Aaron Bradshaw C 7'1'' 230 20 C+ C C C+ C+ A
Tidjane Salaun* PF 6'10'' 210 19 B- C C C C A
Carlton Carrington PG 6'5'' 190 19 B- C+ B- C+ C A
- There are two guys in this tier that I think have the potential to punch up potentially if everything stacks up just right. First up with that is D.J. Wagner. Offensively, Wagner is the best pure scorer in the draft and brings a willingness to pass That should help him evolve as a player. His first step and ball handling abilities allow him to get to his spot and make any shot he takes from all three levels. While he has elite quickness, he isn't quite an elite athlete and some strength and verticality would help him make up for his shortcomings defensively. Again, if everything works out right for Wagner, I could see him being an elite scorer with good enough defense to put himself in the Hall of Fame one day, but I think his most likely best case is a high level scorer who just doesn't do enough else to garner awards.
- The other guy that I debated where to put him is Ron Holland. I think less has to go right for Holland than Wagner, but I also think Holland's actual ceiling is slightly lower. For one, he'll have a turnover problem early on that Wagner won't. Second, he is a bit weak for the small forward position right now and has mostly been able to use his athleticism to win matchups against stronger wings but won't be able to do that nearly as much in the NBN. However, he has a shot to become a high level defender, potentially All-Defensive Team high level while being a decent scorer. His true top end will only be unlocked though if his three point shooting garners a bit more consistency.
- If you just looked at Izan Almansa and the skill set he currently possesses, you probably wonder why he is here. I'll say, any 18 year old that comes into the draft will be placed in an All-Star or Superstar tier just because FBB loves to going nuts and bump teen potentials up giving them time to develop. Not only that, but Izan has a few things going for him overall. He is one of the more athletic players in the draft and is probably best in class in terms of quickness and jumping for his position. He also shows a willingness to pass and a willingness to do the things overall he needs to get better. With three years in Europe remaining for him, the sky really is the limit for this kid. His floor though is pretty low, so he has huge boom or bust potential.
- Justin Edwards came to Kentucky with number-one pick-level hype and has just disappointed so far. Offensively he doesn't seem to really know what he is right now but that is likely where he'll end up being best at. He is fairly athletic overall but needs to add some weight and strength. He is here though, similarly to Izan Almansa, due to scouts all agreeing that whenever it clicks for Justin Edwards his development could be explosive in nature. Also similarly to Izan, he is very much a boom-or-bust prospect, pick with caution.
- If I did a draft superlative article, Dillon Mitchell would be named "Most Likely To Win A Dunk Contest". He is extremely athletically gifted but offensively is raw as hell. He'll almost for sure never be a great three point shooter but with his athleticism its possible he could become a good scorer without top level three point scoring. Beyond the athletics, Mitchell is going to find a place in this league though with his fundamentally sound defense and elite rebounding for a small forward. If camped right and his TCs fall correctly, someone is going to be really happy they took him.
- This class is pretty weak in terms of point guards but there are a few brightsides beyond Topic. First up in that regard is USC point guard Isaiah Collier. Collier has a fairly well balanced game where he doesn't have a true weakness but also doesn't hvae a true strength. He brings good but not great outside scoring but has the ability to develop there. He will be a turnover issue early on but its not unfixable. He is athletic but not on an elite level. He is a solid defender but won't generate a ton of stocks on day one. He is loaded with potential and like the previous two guys will depend on TCs and camping to get him to superstar level.
- Here is a question to pose, if a guy's offense never develops(let's say 12-14 points a game) but makes the 1st Team All-Defense every year and is at the top or near the top of his positions rebounding rates is he a superstar? Ryan Dunn has a chance to fufill that prophecy and honestly is possible that I think its LIKELY. Dunn is going to be the type of guy that doesn't hurt you with turnovers, is solidly athletic but real potential comes from the fact that he is an elite wing rebounder and has elite defensive potential. The right development and he could lead the league in steals, average over a block a game at SF and be solid on ball. I don't think its likely he ever fully figures it out offensively, but if he does this placement is a miss because he'd be the best SF in the league.
- Similarly to Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw was part of a heralded freshman class at Kentucky that has just not panned out the way anyone at Kentucky thought they would. Like Edwards, Bradshaw has also shown flashes of the type of player he can be and at 20 years old still might become. Bradshaw has great size, good strength, and uses that to his benefit in all aspects of his game. Defensively, he has a decent ability to defend the rim but hasn't quite translated that to blocking shots. But he has become quite good at impacting passing lanes and creating turnovers. On the boards, he has shown willingness to get dirty and he could become a double digit rebounder down the road. Offensively he is still learning finesse in the paint but he uses his height to shoot over defenders and is developing both his outside and mid range games. I like Bradshaw as a prospect but someone will need patience and cash to get him to where you wan to go.
- Out of France and remaining there for another season while he finishes out his contract, Tidjane Salaun looks to take his versatile offensive game to the states and produce great results in 2025. Offensively he can score from all three levels but is still working on the effectiveness of his three point game. He is a willing and good passer that uses his athleticism to get to the rim and is a threat to score or pass. He needs to add strength in a hurry and needs major coaching to get his defense to a respectable level, but as a prospect its easy to look and salivate at what you can do with him on offense.
- Again the position I think the draft is lacking the most is point guard but Carlton Carrington is a guy trying to prove that feeling wrong. Extremely quick and athletic, Carrington is one of the best guys under 6'6 that can effectively score at the rim. He pairs that with an innate ability to stop on a dime and hit a mid range jumper. Defensively you would love to see him do more but once again is willing and capable of defending its just not a strength at this point. His decision-making will need to be developed as sometimes he thinks he is a better passer than he is or possesses more skill of the dribble than he does. Figure that out and develop his strengths and you'll be happy with the point guard you get.
Potential All-Stars
Hunter Dickinson C 7'1'' 260 24 B C- C C+ C+ B
Jamal Mashburn Jr. SG 6'2'' 195 24 B- C+ D C D B
Boogie Ellis PG 6'2'' 170 24 C C B- B- D C
Dalton Knecht SG 6'6'' 204 23 C B- C C- D+ B
Ryan Kalkbrenner C 7'1'' 260 23 C C D B C B
Ryan Nembhard PG 6'0'' 170 23 C C B C D A
Adem Bona C 6'10'' 235 21 B- C- D+ C+ C+ A
Roko Prkacin. PF 6'9'' 225 22 C+ C B- C+ C+ B
Kobe Johnson SG 6'6'' 200 22 C+ C C B- C- B
Tyler Kolek PG 6'3'' 190 22 C+ C B- C+ D+ C
Kel'el Ware C 7'0'' 220 21 B- C C C+ B- B
- You'll notice this entire list is a list of guys that come into the league full of current talent but a perceived lack of potential. First up is former player of the year Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson is by far the most skilled offensive big in the paint in this class but lacks modern requirements from a big like outside scoring, the ability to play on the perimeter, and shot blocking.
- Son of former star Jamal Mashburn, Jamal Mashburn Jr. is looking to bring a similarly offensive minded game to the NBN. Mashburn is one of the best overall, well rouneded scorers in the draft that its almost a shame his weaknesses will truly hold him back. Defensively, he really needs work and quickly, almost to the point of being a lost cause. At 24 years old thats a tough pill to swallow and along with his putrid effort on the boards will make it a tough case to start even as his offense should progress into something very nice.
- A candidate for best name, Boogie Ellis is another point guard that is trying to be more than a member of a weak PG class. Honestly he's only here because if he hits just right his decision making being so advanced might give him high enough of an edge to eek out an All-STar or two, but his lack of potential isn't perceived, there is a real ceiling for what he can achieve.
- Dalton Knecht is a wing gifted with great size to go along with his wing skills. He has a bit more upside than Ellis, but not by much but he will give you really good outside scoring, a lack of turnovers, and some decent athleticism to start. Get lucky, camp him right and you could have a pretty good SG on your hands.
- Like Ryan Dunn, Ryan Kalkbrenner is a best-of-class defender who is hoping to become more. Kalkbrenner will be the best shot blocking big in this class and has a chance to be among the best in th eleague. He also has floor strentching ability and incredible size and strength. Sadly he is not fast enough for the modern NBA, brings nothing offensively in the paint, and is a subpar rebounder.
- Following his brother, Ryan Nembhard took a Creighton to Gonzaga track to being a potential lottery pick in the draft. Nembhard is one of the few 22+ year olds in this class to get an A potential. His strengths are obvious, good passing ability, high ceiling as well as not so obvious as he should be one of the better guards at limiting turnovers AND generating turnovers.
- The last A potential player of the article, Adem Bona is seemingly a relic of an old era that tends to still do well in FBB though. He is going to get you buckets from the paint, isn't going to impact the passing game, should rebound okay, and could develop into a nice defensive presence. He doesn't space the floor and he will turn it over in the paint but he brings old school strength and capability to the paint.
- From this point on its fairly slim pickings but I picked a few more players because of specific traits. Roko Prkacin possesses unique versatility, passing ability, while also being somewhat raw for a 22 year old that might limit his ceiling. Kobe Johnson has a shot to be a really nice wing defender but might be limited in the minutes he can play because of his shortcomings offensively if those don't move along. FBB likes to take PGs and run with them so even though the likelihood of Tyler Kolek having enough potential to become an All-Star is low, his ability to pass and base game give him a shot. Finally, Kel'el Ware brings some of that old school abilities to the paint and brings with it one of the few B- rebounders giving him a headstart in that regard to his draftmates.
- There is only one guy in this class I could even see anyone considering going #1 in the draft over Sarr and that is Nikola Topic and only if you need a point guard. Offensively there isn't much more raw of a prospect than Topic and at 19 he hasn't really figured out how to use his quickness and skill at the basket to translate to points on a consistent basis. He is an elite playmaker who will also turn it over a bunch early on as he feels his way through a more talented league. Defensively he should end up being elite though the quickest players in the league will give him problems. He has to develop his offensive game to reach this level, otherwise hes going to be a point guard that bounces from place to place, allured by his passing but let down by his offensive game that could limit a team's ceiling.
Potential SuperstarsD.J. Wagner. SG 6'4'' 192 20 B- B- B- C- C- A
Ron Holland SF 6'8'' 200 19 B- C+ C C+ C A
Izan Almansa*** PF 6'10'' 211 18 C+ C- C C C A
Justin Edwards SF 6'7'' 190 20 C+ C C C+ C- A
Dillon Mitchell SF 6'7'' 200 21 B- C C C+ C+ A
Isaiah Collier PG 6'3'' 190 19 C+ C+ B- C C- A
Ryan Dunn. SF 6'8'' 216 21 C+ C C- B C A
Aaron Bradshaw C 7'1'' 230 20 C+ C C C+ C+ A
Tidjane Salaun* PF 6'10'' 210 19 B- C C C C A
Carlton Carrington PG 6'5'' 190 19 B- C+ B- C+ C A
- There are two guys in this tier that I think have the potential to punch up potentially if everything stacks up just right. First up with that is D.J. Wagner. Offensively, Wagner is the best pure scorer in the draft and brings a willingness to pass That should help him evolve as a player. His first step and ball handling abilities allow him to get to his spot and make any shot he takes from all three levels. While he has elite quickness, he isn't quite an elite athlete and some strength and verticality would help him make up for his shortcomings defensively. Again, if everything works out right for Wagner, I could see him being an elite scorer with good enough defense to put himself in the Hall of Fame one day, but I think his most likely best case is a high level scorer who just doesn't do enough else to garner awards.
- The other guy that I debated where to put him is Ron Holland. I think less has to go right for Holland than Wagner, but I also think Holland's actual ceiling is slightly lower. For one, he'll have a turnover problem early on that Wagner won't. Second, he is a bit weak for the small forward position right now and has mostly been able to use his athleticism to win matchups against stronger wings but won't be able to do that nearly as much in the NBN. However, he has a shot to become a high level defender, potentially All-Defensive Team high level while being a decent scorer. His true top end will only be unlocked though if his three point shooting garners a bit more consistency.
- If you just looked at Izan Almansa and the skill set he currently possesses, you probably wonder why he is here. I'll say, any 18 year old that comes into the draft will be placed in an All-Star or Superstar tier just because FBB loves to going nuts and bump teen potentials up giving them time to develop. Not only that, but Izan has a few things going for him overall. He is one of the more athletic players in the draft and is probably best in class in terms of quickness and jumping for his position. He also shows a willingness to pass and a willingness to do the things overall he needs to get better. With three years in Europe remaining for him, the sky really is the limit for this kid. His floor though is pretty low, so he has huge boom or bust potential.
- Justin Edwards came to Kentucky with number-one pick-level hype and has just disappointed so far. Offensively he doesn't seem to really know what he is right now but that is likely where he'll end up being best at. He is fairly athletic overall but needs to add some weight and strength. He is here though, similarly to Izan Almansa, due to scouts all agreeing that whenever it clicks for Justin Edwards his development could be explosive in nature. Also similarly to Izan, he is very much a boom-or-bust prospect, pick with caution.
- If I did a draft superlative article, Dillon Mitchell would be named "Most Likely To Win A Dunk Contest". He is extremely athletically gifted but offensively is raw as hell. He'll almost for sure never be a great three point shooter but with his athleticism its possible he could become a good scorer without top level three point scoring. Beyond the athletics, Mitchell is going to find a place in this league though with his fundamentally sound defense and elite rebounding for a small forward. If camped right and his TCs fall correctly, someone is going to be really happy they took him.
- This class is pretty weak in terms of point guards but there are a few brightsides beyond Topic. First up in that regard is USC point guard Isaiah Collier. Collier has a fairly well balanced game where he doesn't have a true weakness but also doesn't hvae a true strength. He brings good but not great outside scoring but has the ability to develop there. He will be a turnover issue early on but its not unfixable. He is athletic but not on an elite level. He is a solid defender but won't generate a ton of stocks on day one. He is loaded with potential and like the previous two guys will depend on TCs and camping to get him to superstar level.
- Here is a question to pose, if a guy's offense never develops(let's say 12-14 points a game) but makes the 1st Team All-Defense every year and is at the top or near the top of his positions rebounding rates is he a superstar? Ryan Dunn has a chance to fufill that prophecy and honestly is possible that I think its LIKELY. Dunn is going to be the type of guy that doesn't hurt you with turnovers, is solidly athletic but real potential comes from the fact that he is an elite wing rebounder and has elite defensive potential. The right development and he could lead the league in steals, average over a block a game at SF and be solid on ball. I don't think its likely he ever fully figures it out offensively, but if he does this placement is a miss because he'd be the best SF in the league.
- Similarly to Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw was part of a heralded freshman class at Kentucky that has just not panned out the way anyone at Kentucky thought they would. Like Edwards, Bradshaw has also shown flashes of the type of player he can be and at 20 years old still might become. Bradshaw has great size, good strength, and uses that to his benefit in all aspects of his game. Defensively, he has a decent ability to defend the rim but hasn't quite translated that to blocking shots. But he has become quite good at impacting passing lanes and creating turnovers. On the boards, he has shown willingness to get dirty and he could become a double digit rebounder down the road. Offensively he is still learning finesse in the paint but he uses his height to shoot over defenders and is developing both his outside and mid range games. I like Bradshaw as a prospect but someone will need patience and cash to get him to where you wan to go.
- Out of France and remaining there for another season while he finishes out his contract, Tidjane Salaun looks to take his versatile offensive game to the states and produce great results in 2025. Offensively he can score from all three levels but is still working on the effectiveness of his three point game. He is a willing and good passer that uses his athleticism to get to the rim and is a threat to score or pass. He needs to add strength in a hurry and needs major coaching to get his defense to a respectable level, but as a prospect its easy to look and salivate at what you can do with him on offense.
- Again the position I think the draft is lacking the most is point guard but Carlton Carrington is a guy trying to prove that feeling wrong. Extremely quick and athletic, Carrington is one of the best guys under 6'6 that can effectively score at the rim. He pairs that with an innate ability to stop on a dime and hit a mid range jumper. Defensively you would love to see him do more but once again is willing and capable of defending its just not a strength at this point. His decision-making will need to be developed as sometimes he thinks he is a better passer than he is or possesses more skill of the dribble than he does. Figure that out and develop his strengths and you'll be happy with the point guard you get.
Potential All-Stars
Hunter Dickinson C 7'1'' 260 24 B C- C C+ C+ B
Jamal Mashburn Jr. SG 6'2'' 195 24 B- C+ D C D B
Boogie Ellis PG 6'2'' 170 24 C C B- B- D C
Dalton Knecht SG 6'6'' 204 23 C B- C C- D+ B
Ryan Kalkbrenner C 7'1'' 260 23 C C D B C B
Ryan Nembhard PG 6'0'' 170 23 C C B C D A
Adem Bona C 6'10'' 235 21 B- C- D+ C+ C+ A
Roko Prkacin. PF 6'9'' 225 22 C+ C B- C+ C+ B
Kobe Johnson SG 6'6'' 200 22 C+ C C B- C- B
Tyler Kolek PG 6'3'' 190 22 C+ C B- C+ D+ C
Kel'el Ware C 7'0'' 220 21 B- C C C+ B- B
- You'll notice this entire list is a list of guys that come into the league full of current talent but a perceived lack of potential. First up is former player of the year Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson is by far the most skilled offensive big in the paint in this class but lacks modern requirements from a big like outside scoring, the ability to play on the perimeter, and shot blocking.
- Son of former star Jamal Mashburn, Jamal Mashburn Jr. is looking to bring a similarly offensive minded game to the NBN. Mashburn is one of the best overall, well rouneded scorers in the draft that its almost a shame his weaknesses will truly hold him back. Defensively, he really needs work and quickly, almost to the point of being a lost cause. At 24 years old thats a tough pill to swallow and along with his putrid effort on the boards will make it a tough case to start even as his offense should progress into something very nice.
- A candidate for best name, Boogie Ellis is another point guard that is trying to be more than a member of a weak PG class. Honestly he's only here because if he hits just right his decision making being so advanced might give him high enough of an edge to eek out an All-STar or two, but his lack of potential isn't perceived, there is a real ceiling for what he can achieve.
- Dalton Knecht is a wing gifted with great size to go along with his wing skills. He has a bit more upside than Ellis, but not by much but he will give you really good outside scoring, a lack of turnovers, and some decent athleticism to start. Get lucky, camp him right and you could have a pretty good SG on your hands.
- Like Ryan Dunn, Ryan Kalkbrenner is a best-of-class defender who is hoping to become more. Kalkbrenner will be the best shot blocking big in this class and has a chance to be among the best in th eleague. He also has floor strentching ability and incredible size and strength. Sadly he is not fast enough for the modern NBA, brings nothing offensively in the paint, and is a subpar rebounder.
- Following his brother, Ryan Nembhard took a Creighton to Gonzaga track to being a potential lottery pick in the draft. Nembhard is one of the few 22+ year olds in this class to get an A potential. His strengths are obvious, good passing ability, high ceiling as well as not so obvious as he should be one of the better guards at limiting turnovers AND generating turnovers.
- The last A potential player of the article, Adem Bona is seemingly a relic of an old era that tends to still do well in FBB though. He is going to get you buckets from the paint, isn't going to impact the passing game, should rebound okay, and could develop into a nice defensive presence. He doesn't space the floor and he will turn it over in the paint but he brings old school strength and capability to the paint.
- From this point on its fairly slim pickings but I picked a few more players because of specific traits. Roko Prkacin possesses unique versatility, passing ability, while also being somewhat raw for a 22 year old that might limit his ceiling. Kobe Johnson has a shot to be a really nice wing defender but might be limited in the minutes he can play because of his shortcomings offensively if those don't move along. FBB likes to take PGs and run with them so even though the likelihood of Tyler Kolek having enough potential to become an All-Star is low, his ability to pass and base game give him a shot. Finally, Kel'el Ware brings some of that old school abilities to the paint and brings with it one of the few B- rebounders giving him a headstart in that regard to his draftmates.
*
