Post by ucfinfan86 on Jan 31, 2019 12:04:58 GMT
Rog and I are going to put out a season preview for each division over the next couple of days. We each are listing the placement within the division and if we think the team will make the playoffs:
My analysis is on top, Rog on the bottom:
Sonics (UCF: #1, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #1, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Bob Cousy
SG Bryce Griggs
SF Jesus Shuttlesworth
PF Honglin Qu
C Salah Mejri
Key DeAndre Hunter
Key Glen Selbo
Key Gordon Aitchison
The Sonics return basically the same team. They lost Desaymonnet, who was a great 3rd big man, but did add Aitchison who atleaset is a good rebounder. Cousy is coming off his 4th straight MVP and there’s no reason to think that he won’t win his 5th this season. Griggs (36) and Jesus (32) are both getting up there in age, but haven’t shown any signs of slowing down yet. Qu & Mejri are 2 excellent young fits on this roster who rebound and play good defense and don’t take any shots away from their stars. This could be the last year for this iteration of the Sonics as Griggs, Selbo, and Jesus are free agents and they may look to build a younger roster around Cousy for the 2nd half of his hall of fame career. There was a few year stretch where the Sonics were hands down the best team in the league. That gap has closed, but I think they still have as good of odds as anyone of representing the West in the finals.
Despite what happened last year and the fact that the Sonics have not gotten any better, I still think the Soncis are the favorite. The Blazers are due for some regression and the Sonics just have the best overall roster in this division in my opinion. Led by probably what will go down as the best player in league history in Bob Cousy, the Sonics roster is filled with the "ideals" of positions. Qu and Mejri are bigs who don't take a lot of shots, but rebound exceptionally well and more importantly block a lot of shots. Jesus Shuttleworth is a great scorer, good rebounder, and amazing defender who has insane efficiency. Griggs does a fantastic job for this team playing out of position, and scores a ton for the Sonics and doesn't turn the ball over at all. Whats interesting is they only have 3 players with contracts for next season in Mejri, Qu, and Cousy. Did the Sonics plan out their exit from competing perfectly or is it a coincidence?
Clippers (UCF: #2, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #2, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Frankie Brian
SG Bobby McDermott
SF Bill Mlkvy
PF Arnie Risen
C Jack Kerris
Key Ed Dancker
Key Ty Rodgers
Key John Beckman
The Clippers surprised a lot of people by taking the Nets to game 7 of the finals last season and coming out of the 4th seed to do so. They return a lot of the same roster with the exception of the deal they were able to pull off with the CPU for Risen. Talent wise it was a downgrade, but they were able to unload a bad contract and set themselves up to keep the roster intact for atleast a few more seasons. They don’t really have that elite all NBN caliber of player (Kerris is a consistent allstar for his defensive ability), but they have a collection of really good players and good depth. Beckman, Rodgers, and Dancker is among the best benches in the league. Getting Brian back on a 2year/$12mil deal was a huge move for them. They have a lot of pending FAs so their team could look very different next year, but for this season I would expect them to again battle for home court advantage.
The Clippers have been the most consistent team in the league for the last 15+ seasons. They get their 50 wins and play the crapshoot playoff game, and its paid off for them. They throw together a mix of solid middle aged near stars(Risen, Mlkvy, McDermott), and long term vets(Kerris, Brian, Beckman, Rodgers) to make a team that should run pretty well. Brian will lead the charge offensively, but don't count out the impact that Mlkvy and McDermott will have their as well. They will have a pretty balanced offense overall, with everyone able to score 15+ a game in their starting 5 and Rodgers capable of doing it off the bench. The issue will be their defense, which is very questionable around Brian and Mlkvy. They were a bottom 10 defensive team last year, giving up 123 a game. They did add Risen, who should help but its not like Fulks was a bad defensive player. Overall this is a team that will be in the mix, but I don't quite consider them contenders until I see more.
Warriors (UCF: #3, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #3, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Brooklyn Vick
SG Luguentz Dort
SF Musa Jallow
PF Jack Coleman
C Janis Krumins
Key Ashton Hagans
Key Ricardo Duarte
Key Otto Stangel
I thought the Warriors would have had a better season last year and they brought back mostly the same team. They did just flip Fuzzy for Stangel and a potential lottery pick, which could end up being a really nice move for them. They had a huge offseason last year bringing in Vick, Dort, and Coleman, but I think Dort was a main cause of them failing to meet expectations. He still put up 27-7-4, but 43% shooting and 38% from 3 isn’t good enough from a max level scorer. That said, I think they have the potential to finish anywhere from 8th to 1st in the West and a lot of that depends on the development of SF Musa Jallow. He’s young and has great ratings but hasn’t played up to them yet in the scoring department. After receiving a max contract this offseason, they really need him to step it up to compete with the top of the West.
You know I very much started writing this with the Blazers in mind for number 2, and every time I compared them to a team in the division that is a playoff team, the less I liked them. As for the Warriors, their move to grab a legit small forward pushes a good team to near elite. Vick is still chugging along as a 25 point, 11 assist, 6 rebound with solid defense type player. Dort continues to be a wrecking ball at shooting guard. I've never been super high on Stangel, but getting his scoring in this lineup that will struggle to get points off the bench and from their center position is huge. Coleman has quickly become one of the most underrated players in the league and has been a 19 point, 14 rebound, 2 block guys for forever now, and the Warriors should end up with that type of production once again. I do put them third because of the lack of a great bench, but it isn't horrible. The Pacific will end up with 4 teams over 50 wins, and this is one of the four.
Blazers (UCF: #4, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #4, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Abdoulaye N'Doye
SG Sergei Belov
SF Todd Blanchfield
PF Pierre Thiolon
C Tom Barlow
Key Johnny Logan
Key Modestas Paulauskas
Key George Levis
Losing Milos to FA was a tough blow. N’Doye isn’t what he was a few years ago and even a few years ago wasn’t ideally suited as a starter. They do have a lot of just good players though, so if they can find a trade for a PG, they could pretty easily find themselves among the top of the West. Belov has taken his game to another level since coming to Portland and is a legit star. There really isn’t anything he can’t do and the low turnovers are icing on the cake. The roster has a good combination of young guys (De Souza, Paulauskas, and Smith) and veterans (Belov, Barlow, Blanchfield, Thiolon). This is a good defensive team led by Barlow, but think they could struggle to score if they continue to start N’Doye at center with Belov the only consistent scoring threat. They are going to be one of the teams to watch if they can pull off a big trade.
The Blazers ended last year as the number 1 overall seed winning 61 games. They then lost Milos Teodosic to free agency. They also didn't address a weakness in their front court either. They did get a nice TC and seemingly a boost in production from Modestas Paulauskas, I just think the downgrade from Teodosic to N'Doye is that big of a deal. Get an upgrade at the point guard position and I think the Blazers can win the division. I just can't put this team with a guy who can't shoot and is for the most part a pure defensive guy above guys with just as good starting lineups and much better point guards. However, once again we're still talking about a 50 win team who will be very good and could very easily win the title this year.
Lakers (UCF: #5, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #5, Playoffs: No)
PG KC Jones
SG Bobby Wanzer
SF Aden Holloway
PF Bailey Howell
C Tom Heinsohn
Key Guy Rodgers
Key Quentin Grimes
Key Daniel Gafford
The Lakers continue to take the slow building approach and I don’t usually agree with the direction they head in. I mention it in every Lakers preview, but I just don’t understand why Holloway remains on the roster. It seems like they are destined for a 35 win season and pick in the late lottery again. They missed their opportunity to flip Holloway into a big rebuilding piece. They have some good or interesting young pieces though in Howell, Heinsohn, and Rodgers. Howell is probably their cornerstone piece who can develop into an All NBN player. I think they massively overpaid KC Jones, but I understand why they wanted to keep him. Overall I really think the Lakers need to either make a move for another veteran to try and make a playoff push, or sell off Holloway and Wanzer, get another piece or two and worsen your own pick and go all in next season.
The Lakers have a decent amount of talent here, Tom Heinsohn, Bailey Howell, and KC Jones are all solid young talents, but none of them are guys that should be currently starting on a contender. The Lakers are obviously not a contender, and they wasted the prime of Holloway's career which is a shame. The GM has struggled to make things work since Dennis Smith Jr retired, and I don't know that I see a roster here that should end up being a title contending team, especially with KC Jone's contract and their other 2 young talents being post players. Time will tell.
Suns (UCF: #6, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #7, Playoffs: No)
PG Giacomo Nicolin
SG Gene Vance
SF Jalen Johnson
PF Leon Volasgis
C Walt Bellamy
Key Dick Groat
Key Maurice Desaymonnet
Key Phil Tollestrup
The Suns have some really nice rebuilding pieces but are still a few years away from competing without some major trades. Bellamy/Johnson is as good as any young duo in the league. They had some bad luck with Nicolin who took a big drop from A > C in potential in TC. Gamba and Nicolin are still interesting prospects though to build around the other 2. They should also be one of the more desirable teams to trade with come the trade deadline with Vance, Groat, Desaymonnet, and Volasgis all likely to be on the block and could all help a contender. They are in one of the most desirable rebuilding spots in the league and should have a bright future if they manage it correctly.
Oh man. This is one hell of a disaster of a roster. Bellamy looks like a potentially superstar piece, but a big can only do so much. Their second best player is a 37 year old who is awesome and a Hall of Famer, but should not be your 2nd best player right now. Between Bellamy and Jalen Johnson, I think the future is looking up, but holy hell they are in for a long year.
Kings (UCF: #7, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #6, Playoffs: No)
PG Josip Giergia
SG Meadowlark Lemon
SF Chia Chungchang
PF Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
C Luka Samaic
Key Win Wilfong
Key Moyses Blas
Key Alonzo Gaffney
This is a team that’s had a lot of young players over the past few seasons, but none of them really panned out. Wilfong, Blas, and Lemon all kind of stalled in their development. I think Gjergia was a bit of a reach at #8. It’ll be interesting to watch if the new GM decides to part with Chia and Samanic. Chia is a very good player, but he’s got a very rich contract and you just can’t overlook the turnover issues. He’s kind of wasting away on a rebuilding team, but not sure how much value he has with his contract and turnovers. By the time this team is ready to compete, he’ll be making $20+mil a year. This is a team that I’d expect to probably tank to land that surefire prospect to build around and look to unload almost everyone on the roster outside of Gjergia.
Talk about not being able to replace legends, the Kings have been a mess since they decided to reset and rebuild. Life issues obviously conflicted with Buckeye trying to make things work out and then he had to leave. Problem right now is there is not a player on the roster that I think is a franchise piece. Luka Samanic is a starting power forward on a title winning type team, no doubt, but he isn't a franchise piece. Chia Chungchang was a franchise hopeful for Buckeye, but as talented as he is he just has a huge issue with turnovers and that will never go away and will continue to bring him down. They have their pick this year, so with a bad year they should be able to find a new franchise guy, but for now they are just going to be bad.
My analysis is on top, Rog on the bottom:
Sonics (UCF: #1, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #1, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Bob Cousy
SG Bryce Griggs
SF Jesus Shuttlesworth
PF Honglin Qu
C Salah Mejri
Key DeAndre Hunter
Key Glen Selbo
Key Gordon Aitchison
The Sonics return basically the same team. They lost Desaymonnet, who was a great 3rd big man, but did add Aitchison who atleaset is a good rebounder. Cousy is coming off his 4th straight MVP and there’s no reason to think that he won’t win his 5th this season. Griggs (36) and Jesus (32) are both getting up there in age, but haven’t shown any signs of slowing down yet. Qu & Mejri are 2 excellent young fits on this roster who rebound and play good defense and don’t take any shots away from their stars. This could be the last year for this iteration of the Sonics as Griggs, Selbo, and Jesus are free agents and they may look to build a younger roster around Cousy for the 2nd half of his hall of fame career. There was a few year stretch where the Sonics were hands down the best team in the league. That gap has closed, but I think they still have as good of odds as anyone of representing the West in the finals.
Despite what happened last year and the fact that the Sonics have not gotten any better, I still think the Soncis are the favorite. The Blazers are due for some regression and the Sonics just have the best overall roster in this division in my opinion. Led by probably what will go down as the best player in league history in Bob Cousy, the Sonics roster is filled with the "ideals" of positions. Qu and Mejri are bigs who don't take a lot of shots, but rebound exceptionally well and more importantly block a lot of shots. Jesus Shuttleworth is a great scorer, good rebounder, and amazing defender who has insane efficiency. Griggs does a fantastic job for this team playing out of position, and scores a ton for the Sonics and doesn't turn the ball over at all. Whats interesting is they only have 3 players with contracts for next season in Mejri, Qu, and Cousy. Did the Sonics plan out their exit from competing perfectly or is it a coincidence?
Clippers (UCF: #2, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #2, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Frankie Brian
SG Bobby McDermott
SF Bill Mlkvy
PF Arnie Risen
C Jack Kerris
Key Ed Dancker
Key Ty Rodgers
Key John Beckman
The Clippers surprised a lot of people by taking the Nets to game 7 of the finals last season and coming out of the 4th seed to do so. They return a lot of the same roster with the exception of the deal they were able to pull off with the CPU for Risen. Talent wise it was a downgrade, but they were able to unload a bad contract and set themselves up to keep the roster intact for atleast a few more seasons. They don’t really have that elite all NBN caliber of player (Kerris is a consistent allstar for his defensive ability), but they have a collection of really good players and good depth. Beckman, Rodgers, and Dancker is among the best benches in the league. Getting Brian back on a 2year/$12mil deal was a huge move for them. They have a lot of pending FAs so their team could look very different next year, but for this season I would expect them to again battle for home court advantage.
The Clippers have been the most consistent team in the league for the last 15+ seasons. They get their 50 wins and play the crapshoot playoff game, and its paid off for them. They throw together a mix of solid middle aged near stars(Risen, Mlkvy, McDermott), and long term vets(Kerris, Brian, Beckman, Rodgers) to make a team that should run pretty well. Brian will lead the charge offensively, but don't count out the impact that Mlkvy and McDermott will have their as well. They will have a pretty balanced offense overall, with everyone able to score 15+ a game in their starting 5 and Rodgers capable of doing it off the bench. The issue will be their defense, which is very questionable around Brian and Mlkvy. They were a bottom 10 defensive team last year, giving up 123 a game. They did add Risen, who should help but its not like Fulks was a bad defensive player. Overall this is a team that will be in the mix, but I don't quite consider them contenders until I see more.
Warriors (UCF: #3, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #3, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Brooklyn Vick
SG Luguentz Dort
SF Musa Jallow
PF Jack Coleman
C Janis Krumins
Key Ashton Hagans
Key Ricardo Duarte
Key Otto Stangel
I thought the Warriors would have had a better season last year and they brought back mostly the same team. They did just flip Fuzzy for Stangel and a potential lottery pick, which could end up being a really nice move for them. They had a huge offseason last year bringing in Vick, Dort, and Coleman, but I think Dort was a main cause of them failing to meet expectations. He still put up 27-7-4, but 43% shooting and 38% from 3 isn’t good enough from a max level scorer. That said, I think they have the potential to finish anywhere from 8th to 1st in the West and a lot of that depends on the development of SF Musa Jallow. He’s young and has great ratings but hasn’t played up to them yet in the scoring department. After receiving a max contract this offseason, they really need him to step it up to compete with the top of the West.
You know I very much started writing this with the Blazers in mind for number 2, and every time I compared them to a team in the division that is a playoff team, the less I liked them. As for the Warriors, their move to grab a legit small forward pushes a good team to near elite. Vick is still chugging along as a 25 point, 11 assist, 6 rebound with solid defense type player. Dort continues to be a wrecking ball at shooting guard. I've never been super high on Stangel, but getting his scoring in this lineup that will struggle to get points off the bench and from their center position is huge. Coleman has quickly become one of the most underrated players in the league and has been a 19 point, 14 rebound, 2 block guys for forever now, and the Warriors should end up with that type of production once again. I do put them third because of the lack of a great bench, but it isn't horrible. The Pacific will end up with 4 teams over 50 wins, and this is one of the four.
Blazers (UCF: #4, Playoffs: Yes) (Rog: #4, Playoffs: Yes)
PG Abdoulaye N'Doye
SG Sergei Belov
SF Todd Blanchfield
PF Pierre Thiolon
C Tom Barlow
Key Johnny Logan
Key Modestas Paulauskas
Key George Levis
Losing Milos to FA was a tough blow. N’Doye isn’t what he was a few years ago and even a few years ago wasn’t ideally suited as a starter. They do have a lot of just good players though, so if they can find a trade for a PG, they could pretty easily find themselves among the top of the West. Belov has taken his game to another level since coming to Portland and is a legit star. There really isn’t anything he can’t do and the low turnovers are icing on the cake. The roster has a good combination of young guys (De Souza, Paulauskas, and Smith) and veterans (Belov, Barlow, Blanchfield, Thiolon). This is a good defensive team led by Barlow, but think they could struggle to score if they continue to start N’Doye at center with Belov the only consistent scoring threat. They are going to be one of the teams to watch if they can pull off a big trade.
The Blazers ended last year as the number 1 overall seed winning 61 games. They then lost Milos Teodosic to free agency. They also didn't address a weakness in their front court either. They did get a nice TC and seemingly a boost in production from Modestas Paulauskas, I just think the downgrade from Teodosic to N'Doye is that big of a deal. Get an upgrade at the point guard position and I think the Blazers can win the division. I just can't put this team with a guy who can't shoot and is for the most part a pure defensive guy above guys with just as good starting lineups and much better point guards. However, once again we're still talking about a 50 win team who will be very good and could very easily win the title this year.
Lakers (UCF: #5, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #5, Playoffs: No)
PG KC Jones
SG Bobby Wanzer
SF Aden Holloway
PF Bailey Howell
C Tom Heinsohn
Key Guy Rodgers
Key Quentin Grimes
Key Daniel Gafford
The Lakers continue to take the slow building approach and I don’t usually agree with the direction they head in. I mention it in every Lakers preview, but I just don’t understand why Holloway remains on the roster. It seems like they are destined for a 35 win season and pick in the late lottery again. They missed their opportunity to flip Holloway into a big rebuilding piece. They have some good or interesting young pieces though in Howell, Heinsohn, and Rodgers. Howell is probably their cornerstone piece who can develop into an All NBN player. I think they massively overpaid KC Jones, but I understand why they wanted to keep him. Overall I really think the Lakers need to either make a move for another veteran to try and make a playoff push, or sell off Holloway and Wanzer, get another piece or two and worsen your own pick and go all in next season.
The Lakers have a decent amount of talent here, Tom Heinsohn, Bailey Howell, and KC Jones are all solid young talents, but none of them are guys that should be currently starting on a contender. The Lakers are obviously not a contender, and they wasted the prime of Holloway's career which is a shame. The GM has struggled to make things work since Dennis Smith Jr retired, and I don't know that I see a roster here that should end up being a title contending team, especially with KC Jone's contract and their other 2 young talents being post players. Time will tell.
Suns (UCF: #6, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #7, Playoffs: No)
PG Giacomo Nicolin
SG Gene Vance
SF Jalen Johnson
PF Leon Volasgis
C Walt Bellamy
Key Dick Groat
Key Maurice Desaymonnet
Key Phil Tollestrup
The Suns have some really nice rebuilding pieces but are still a few years away from competing without some major trades. Bellamy/Johnson is as good as any young duo in the league. They had some bad luck with Nicolin who took a big drop from A > C in potential in TC. Gamba and Nicolin are still interesting prospects though to build around the other 2. They should also be one of the more desirable teams to trade with come the trade deadline with Vance, Groat, Desaymonnet, and Volasgis all likely to be on the block and could all help a contender. They are in one of the most desirable rebuilding spots in the league and should have a bright future if they manage it correctly.
Oh man. This is one hell of a disaster of a roster. Bellamy looks like a potentially superstar piece, but a big can only do so much. Their second best player is a 37 year old who is awesome and a Hall of Famer, but should not be your 2nd best player right now. Between Bellamy and Jalen Johnson, I think the future is looking up, but holy hell they are in for a long year.
Kings (UCF: #7, Playoffs: No) (Rog: #6, Playoffs: No)
PG Josip Giergia
SG Meadowlark Lemon
SF Chia Chungchang
PF Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
C Luka Samaic
Key Win Wilfong
Key Moyses Blas
Key Alonzo Gaffney
This is a team that’s had a lot of young players over the past few seasons, but none of them really panned out. Wilfong, Blas, and Lemon all kind of stalled in their development. I think Gjergia was a bit of a reach at #8. It’ll be interesting to watch if the new GM decides to part with Chia and Samanic. Chia is a very good player, but he’s got a very rich contract and you just can’t overlook the turnover issues. He’s kind of wasting away on a rebuilding team, but not sure how much value he has with his contract and turnovers. By the time this team is ready to compete, he’ll be making $20+mil a year. This is a team that I’d expect to probably tank to land that surefire prospect to build around and look to unload almost everyone on the roster outside of Gjergia.
Talk about not being able to replace legends, the Kings have been a mess since they decided to reset and rebuild. Life issues obviously conflicted with Buckeye trying to make things work out and then he had to leave. Problem right now is there is not a player on the roster that I think is a franchise piece. Luka Samanic is a starting power forward on a title winning type team, no doubt, but he isn't a franchise piece. Chia Chungchang was a franchise hopeful for Buckeye, but as talented as he is he just has a huge issue with turnovers and that will never go away and will continue to bring him down. They have their pick this year, so with a bad year they should be able to find a new franchise guy, but for now they are just going to be bad.
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