Post by zheld32 on Jul 13, 2019 15:55:36 GMT
So I thought I would do an article series on potential cap-space in the new system as well as off-season outlooks for teams. I updated all the figures and as of this posting each teams cap space is accurate. One thing to note though is that these projections don't include the cap holds that draft picks will use so you have to account for how much money they will make. But other than that it should be accurate.
My big take-aways from doing this is that literally the entire league is going to have cap room. Even with the new salary cap system most teams will have enough money to offer at least 1 max contract. Feel free to comment, I took my best stab at potential off-season moves and decision points but obviously I have no idea what GMs are actually thinking. Enjoy!
Central Division
Bulls: Expected Cap Space: $26,963,180
Off-season Outlook: Right now, they have a lot of needs. Depending on who they get in the draft with one of the top picks they should probably look for a couple of starting quality big men. They have a lot of small contracts that are movable and will be more attractive next year when they will equal about 15mill expiring. Personally, I think given that there is going to be a crapton more cap space than deserving players SGA will be an extremely attractive trade target for a team that misses out on some of the big free agents. Especially considering his huge contract is in line with what a max deal would look like under the new system. His 25ppg and 8rpg would look good on a team like the Celtics if they want to make one more run with Johnson at PF and SGA Simons and Schmidt. The Sonics also I think would be intriguing if they want to play him at SG (he is 6’6) he could be an interesting pairing with Morant. I think once free agency plays itself out the bulls will be in a good position.
Hawks: Expected Cap Space: $43,637,589
Off-season Outlook: The Hawks outlook changed significantly after unloading Jalen Leque. They are now a move away from having 2 max slots which would be an interesting development for them considering their needs. They are in line for a Lotto pick and is they can move off Watermute they would have enough cap space to go after a top pair of free agents (Manion & Galis perhaps). If they can dump Slim they will have $64, 262, 589 which would put them basically in a tie with the Sixers for the 2nd most cap space in the league. It is tough to tell what they will do in free agency and I think it honestly depends a lot on Slim. This off-season could potentially determine if the Hawks undergo a slow rebuild using their own pics and bottom out or if the go all in on free agency and try and compete in the near future.
Hornets: Expected Cap Space: $59,267,792
Off-season Outlook: The hornets are another team that is hard to figure out in my opinion. Based on talent I feel like they should be one of the best teams in the league. Jerry West is probably the best player in the league right now and has one more year after this on his rookie deal to be one of the best bargains in the league. Obviously as it is for any team the best-case scenario here is if they were able to sign Elgin Baylor. The difference in the Hornets signing him is that they would have possibly the best 1-2 punch in league history. If they can’t get Baylor though I may consider making small changes and running it back with a similar team. They have a very deep team right now and don’t have any bad contracts. We will see what they do but this team could look a lot different next year around West.
Cavs: Expected Cap Space: $44,951,316
Off-season Outlook: Ah the Cavs the fuckers that stole Green from me (really the previous GM not offering him an offer he can’t refuse is what fucked me) but whatever. They are one of the better teams in the league on the strength of their back-court of Mannion and Green. Their first order of business should 100% be resigning Mannion. He will command a max contract but if they lose him then they don’t really have a lot of options that can give them what he can at the PG position. Best case scenario for Hawks in my mind is resigning Mannion and dealing Mejri and Nicholson. If they can do this, they will have enough money to max anyone in the league in addition to Mannion if they want and they can let Fuzzy go and slide Havilcek into that SF role (he should be one of the best players in the league next year). And have the cap space to sign someone like Jean-Paul Beugnot or Dino. They could potentially have basically an all-star team next year depending on how they manipulate their cap. I would expect them to be the favorite in the east next year provided they don’t lose Mannion.
Pistons: Expected Cap Space: $58,911,268
Offseason Outlook: The Pistons played last off-season well and signed a couple guys to long term flat level deals that will age very well under the new cap system. They don’t have a star on their team right now, but I have no doubts that they will make Rod Thorn a very good player with camping. They don’t really have any bad contracts on their team and will probably want to resign Sale who should come at a reasonable price tag. The first order of business for them this off-season should be getting a top SG to mentor Thorn and there are a lot available. I think someone like Dort or Queeley would make a lot of sense for them. They are also in line for a top pick and they will probably be looking at some of the top SF and PF in the draft this year. This team is set up nicely for the future but has some work to do this off-season. However, because their best players are on below market deals this is not a make or break season for them and they can afford to build slowly over the course of a couple of off-season. Another underrated aspect of this team is that because the Spurs basically sold them their future the Pistons will have 2 1st round picks in every draft through 2047. That is a good way to rebuild and although they have work to do they have one of the brightest futures in the league.
Pacers: Expected Cap Space: $54,463,734
Offseason Outlook: The Pacers have probably been one of the most aggressive teams this season in trade talks trying to deal Fulks and Mcguire. It is clear they do not want to pay them the money it would take to keep them in the new cap system and want value for them now. On the bright side for the Pacers they have probably my favorite and in my estimation the best contract in the league in Naulls at 5 years 60 mill flat contract. This is an amazing steal of a contract right now and will look even better next year. That being said they could probably use a mentor for Kojis if they view him as their long-term answer at SF (perhaps and Azirin reunion)? They will need to replace McGuire who despite their desire to trade does average 25/11 for them. This point guard class is strong though and they could conceivably sign an entirely new back-court and have a very good looking starting 5. With Naulls signed long term if the can get 2 star level players they should be one of the best teams in the league soon.
Bucks Expected Cap Space: $54,902,934
Off-season Outlook: The Bucks have a lot to do this off-season. They are probably going to lose one of the best players in the league in Beugnot and unfortunately don’t have a lot to replace him with. The good news for the Bucks though is that they have one of the best rookies in the league in Chet Walker who with proper development could be very very good. Their biggest needs right now are in the back-court where they don’t really have a starting caliber PG or SG in my opinion. The good news for them is that this class is full of PGs and SG’s and they should be able to sign 2 max level players to those positions. This would set them up nicely. Hypothetically if they sign a combination of say Dick McGuire and Kareem Queeley they could have a lineup of Mcguire-Queeley-Walker-Top 5 pick-Imhoff. That is a good core with a good mix of young guys and high performing veterans. I have no idea if they will go all in this offseason but even if they lose Beugnot they have the ability to put a very strong team on the floor next year especially if they are able to keep developing Imhoff and Walker. Going to be an interesting off-season for the Bucks
Raptors: Expected Cap Space: $36,913,085
Offseason Outlook: The Raptors are in a weird position because of Booboo McAdoo doesn’t retire or fall off a cliff in terms of skill level in the off-season they will have a great big 3 of McAdoo-Berkovich-Yardley with 37mill to spend in free agency on 2 high level big men. However, if McAdoo retires PG becomes a huge need for them and at one of the most important (if not the most important) positions in the game a huge chunk of their cap space would need to go to the PG position. They did a great job getting out of Smawleys contract considering they have Yardley and Berkovich and I am envisioning them using the cap space on a combination the likes of Tom Barlow and Dino Meneghin. That would give them an incredible defensive big man combo and allow Yardley and Berkovich to be their primary scorers with Booboo distributing and hopefully mentoring a young PG they can pick up in the draft. Like some of the other teams in the central division the Raptors have a chance to set themselves up nicely to compete for the next few years.
My big take-aways from doing this is that literally the entire league is going to have cap room. Even with the new salary cap system most teams will have enough money to offer at least 1 max contract. Feel free to comment, I took my best stab at potential off-season moves and decision points but obviously I have no idea what GMs are actually thinking. Enjoy!
Central Division
Bulls: Expected Cap Space: $26,963,180
Off-season Outlook: Right now, they have a lot of needs. Depending on who they get in the draft with one of the top picks they should probably look for a couple of starting quality big men. They have a lot of small contracts that are movable and will be more attractive next year when they will equal about 15mill expiring. Personally, I think given that there is going to be a crapton more cap space than deserving players SGA will be an extremely attractive trade target for a team that misses out on some of the big free agents. Especially considering his huge contract is in line with what a max deal would look like under the new system. His 25ppg and 8rpg would look good on a team like the Celtics if they want to make one more run with Johnson at PF and SGA Simons and Schmidt. The Sonics also I think would be intriguing if they want to play him at SG (he is 6’6) he could be an interesting pairing with Morant. I think once free agency plays itself out the bulls will be in a good position.
Hawks: Expected Cap Space: $43,637,589
Off-season Outlook: The Hawks outlook changed significantly after unloading Jalen Leque. They are now a move away from having 2 max slots which would be an interesting development for them considering their needs. They are in line for a Lotto pick and is they can move off Watermute they would have enough cap space to go after a top pair of free agents (Manion & Galis perhaps). If they can dump Slim they will have $64, 262, 589 which would put them basically in a tie with the Sixers for the 2nd most cap space in the league. It is tough to tell what they will do in free agency and I think it honestly depends a lot on Slim. This off-season could potentially determine if the Hawks undergo a slow rebuild using their own pics and bottom out or if the go all in on free agency and try and compete in the near future.
Hornets: Expected Cap Space: $59,267,792
Off-season Outlook: The hornets are another team that is hard to figure out in my opinion. Based on talent I feel like they should be one of the best teams in the league. Jerry West is probably the best player in the league right now and has one more year after this on his rookie deal to be one of the best bargains in the league. Obviously as it is for any team the best-case scenario here is if they were able to sign Elgin Baylor. The difference in the Hornets signing him is that they would have possibly the best 1-2 punch in league history. If they can’t get Baylor though I may consider making small changes and running it back with a similar team. They have a very deep team right now and don’t have any bad contracts. We will see what they do but this team could look a lot different next year around West.
Cavs: Expected Cap Space: $44,951,316
Off-season Outlook: Ah the Cavs the fuckers that stole Green from me (really the previous GM not offering him an offer he can’t refuse is what fucked me) but whatever. They are one of the better teams in the league on the strength of their back-court of Mannion and Green. Their first order of business should 100% be resigning Mannion. He will command a max contract but if they lose him then they don’t really have a lot of options that can give them what he can at the PG position. Best case scenario for Hawks in my mind is resigning Mannion and dealing Mejri and Nicholson. If they can do this, they will have enough money to max anyone in the league in addition to Mannion if they want and they can let Fuzzy go and slide Havilcek into that SF role (he should be one of the best players in the league next year). And have the cap space to sign someone like Jean-Paul Beugnot or Dino. They could potentially have basically an all-star team next year depending on how they manipulate their cap. I would expect them to be the favorite in the east next year provided they don’t lose Mannion.
Pistons: Expected Cap Space: $58,911,268
Offseason Outlook: The Pistons played last off-season well and signed a couple guys to long term flat level deals that will age very well under the new cap system. They don’t have a star on their team right now, but I have no doubts that they will make Rod Thorn a very good player with camping. They don’t really have any bad contracts on their team and will probably want to resign Sale who should come at a reasonable price tag. The first order of business for them this off-season should be getting a top SG to mentor Thorn and there are a lot available. I think someone like Dort or Queeley would make a lot of sense for them. They are also in line for a top pick and they will probably be looking at some of the top SF and PF in the draft this year. This team is set up nicely for the future but has some work to do this off-season. However, because their best players are on below market deals this is not a make or break season for them and they can afford to build slowly over the course of a couple of off-season. Another underrated aspect of this team is that because the Spurs basically sold them their future the Pistons will have 2 1st round picks in every draft through 2047. That is a good way to rebuild and although they have work to do they have one of the brightest futures in the league.
Pacers: Expected Cap Space: $54,463,734
Offseason Outlook: The Pacers have probably been one of the most aggressive teams this season in trade talks trying to deal Fulks and Mcguire. It is clear they do not want to pay them the money it would take to keep them in the new cap system and want value for them now. On the bright side for the Pacers they have probably my favorite and in my estimation the best contract in the league in Naulls at 5 years 60 mill flat contract. This is an amazing steal of a contract right now and will look even better next year. That being said they could probably use a mentor for Kojis if they view him as their long-term answer at SF (perhaps and Azirin reunion)? They will need to replace McGuire who despite their desire to trade does average 25/11 for them. This point guard class is strong though and they could conceivably sign an entirely new back-court and have a very good looking starting 5. With Naulls signed long term if the can get 2 star level players they should be one of the best teams in the league soon.
Bucks Expected Cap Space: $54,902,934
Off-season Outlook: The Bucks have a lot to do this off-season. They are probably going to lose one of the best players in the league in Beugnot and unfortunately don’t have a lot to replace him with. The good news for the Bucks though is that they have one of the best rookies in the league in Chet Walker who with proper development could be very very good. Their biggest needs right now are in the back-court where they don’t really have a starting caliber PG or SG in my opinion. The good news for them is that this class is full of PGs and SG’s and they should be able to sign 2 max level players to those positions. This would set them up nicely. Hypothetically if they sign a combination of say Dick McGuire and Kareem Queeley they could have a lineup of Mcguire-Queeley-Walker-Top 5 pick-Imhoff. That is a good core with a good mix of young guys and high performing veterans. I have no idea if they will go all in this offseason but even if they lose Beugnot they have the ability to put a very strong team on the floor next year especially if they are able to keep developing Imhoff and Walker. Going to be an interesting off-season for the Bucks
Raptors: Expected Cap Space: $36,913,085
Offseason Outlook: The Raptors are in a weird position because of Booboo McAdoo doesn’t retire or fall off a cliff in terms of skill level in the off-season they will have a great big 3 of McAdoo-Berkovich-Yardley with 37mill to spend in free agency on 2 high level big men. However, if McAdoo retires PG becomes a huge need for them and at one of the most important (if not the most important) positions in the game a huge chunk of their cap space would need to go to the PG position. They did a great job getting out of Smawleys contract considering they have Yardley and Berkovich and I am envisioning them using the cap space on a combination the likes of Tom Barlow and Dino Meneghin. That would give them an incredible defensive big man combo and allow Yardley and Berkovich to be their primary scorers with Booboo distributing and hopefully mentoring a young PG they can pick up in the draft. Like some of the other teams in the central division the Raptors have a chance to set themselves up nicely to compete for the next few years.
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