Midwest Division Expected Cap Room and Off-season Outlook
Jul 14, 2019 14:23:46 GMT
vanimmer likes this
Post by zheld32 on Jul 14, 2019 14:23:46 GMT
So I thought I would do an article series on potential cap-space in the new system as well as off-season outlooks for teams. I updated all the figures and as of this posting each teams cap space is accurate. One thing to note though is that these projections don't include the cap holds that draft picks will use so you have to account for how much money they will make. But other than that it should be accurate.
My big take-aways from doing this is that literally the entire league is going to have cap room. Even with the new salary cap system most teams will have enough money to offer at least 1 max contract. Feel free to comment, I took my best stab at potential off-season moves and decision points but obviously I have no idea what GMs are actually thinking. Enjoy!
Midwest
Mavs: Expected Cap Room $14,273,952
Off-season Outlook: The Mavericks are in a tough spot. I am sure they did not expect to be near the bottom of the league with all the moves they made but they have a lot of long term contracts on this team that may be hard to move. The good news is these contracts will look a lot better in the new cap system the bad news is there is a lot of overlap on this team. I could argue that their top 7 players play the same 3 positions (PG SF & PF). I love the contracts that Hundley and Johnson are on but Mobley, Schaffer, Demarco, Barnett and Felici are going to account for 44.5mill of their cap next year and between them average 26mpg and 10.4ppg. That is a LOT of cap space dedicated to players who play at basically a replacement level. With Hundley and Johnson's contracts they could really use that cap space to sign top level talent and build a really good teams because right now their 2 best players make a combined 17mill. If they can make some moves and either sign top free agents or consolidate some of their assets for another star they will be fine but without their own picks they don’t have a lot of wiggle room this off-season.
Nuggets: Expected Cap Room $23,375,000
Off-season Outlook: The Nuggets very smartly gave Oscar an offer he cant refuse. That contract is going to be probably the best in the league next year. They have probably the best situation in the league right now and their big 4 of Oscar, Petit, Cruz, and Steveneirs is signed through at least next year on affordable deals. Really the only thing I can say about them as a potential move is to trade Barros for future picks and then they would be able to max anyone in the league in free agency. That being said if they did that and were able to max Elgin Baylor we might as well all give up now. In my opinion Jerry West and Oscar are the 1A and 1B in the league right now and I would assume that the Nuggets are going to compete at a high level for a long time. They have enough pieces and cap room to get a lot of depth this off-season as well. They are in very good shape.
Rockets: Expected Cap Room $15,258,092
Off-season Outlook: As a Celtics fan I will never forgive them for not turning Bill Russell into a star and because of that his current contract is looking like a huge overpay based on his production. They have some good players on this team and Willis Reed (as long as he gets camped) looks like a surefire stud. They probably should trade one of their PGs for a SF and then they will have a pretty good core and balanced lineup. Best case is they can move Daneu and some other assets for a SF but despite all their issues I do feel like they are only a few moves away from being a player in the west. I would anticipate Reed being a bonafide star next year after another training camp and his rookie scale deal will allow them a lot of flexibility if they can make some moves. Right now SF is a glaring hole for them and given how important of a position it is in this league I think they probably need to address it before they can really make any noise.
Twolves: Expected Cap Room $71,518,437
Off-season Outlook: Well we have finally gotten to the team with the most cap space in the upcoming off-season. The only 2 contracts on their books next year will be one of the best contracts in the league in MIkvy and Harding's rookie deal. I would guess that depending on what Dort wants to resign they may look to bring him back but this team is going to look very different next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to trade some of their players for downgrades will still keeping it as an expiring and trying to add future assets. If I had to guess on priorities for them number 1 would be a PG and a mentor for Harding. If they cant trade for a mentor this year they can super-camp him this year and sign one next year as there should be some available in free agency. Free agency never seems to go according to plan but the Wolves more than any team have the chance to completely remake their team and add a lot of star power this off-season.
Spurs: Expected Cap Room $17,269,665
Off-season Outlook: The Spurs made one of the biggest moves of the season when hey traded Hampton. Dragan and Bogut Jr. To the Jazz for Wilt Chamberlain. The Spurs now have the best big man combo in the league in DD and Wilt. And combined with Jalen Johnson should combine to make one of the highest scoring front-courts in the league. The Spurs have made a lot of moves this season and on paper their lineup of Leque-Smawley-Johnson-DeBusschere-Wilt is one of the best in the league. However, the big question for me is can a team built from the inside out win in this league. Most championship teams best players are in some combination of SF and PG and this is not the case with the Spurs. They also have added a lot of salary for the next few years so they are kind of locked into this core for a while. Personally I like what they are doing and I could see them being one of the best teams in the league next year but if it were me I probably would have waited to see if I could get Queeley and Mannion this off-season and then if not I would have dealt for Smawley and or Lecque. Either way these are promising times for the Spurs.
Jazz: Expected Cap Room $34,191,056
Off-season Outlook: The Jazz were the other half of that Chamberlain trade and now their starting lineup has an average age of 21 years old. They have been making a lot of moves lately and were able to give Hampton an offer he cant refuse. They also bought out the last year of Dragans rookie deal and then gave him an offer he cant refuse as well. This will eat into their cap next year but provided he keeps developing his contract will be much more manageable moving forward than if he had been resigned when his original rookie deal expired and he was signed under the new cap rules. I think the key for this team will be how much Stith develops after his potential is set to A this off-season. If he can make a leap than the Jazz will have one of the best cores in the league. I would expect them to go after a SF, depth pieces, and players who are able to mentor their young guys this off-season. Hopefully with continued development from their young core they will be able to compete in the near future as most of their young pieces are locked up for the foreseeable future.
Grizz: Expected Cap Room $9,789,569
Off-season Outlook: The Grizzlies do not have a lot of cap room this off-season but they don’t necessarily need it. They are one of the better teams in the league and as long as they can retain Everett Case or someone close to his level I think they will continue to be at the top of the western conference. The only issue I see with this team is they are very top heavy. They have 4 players who will make a combined 63mill next year so there is not a lot of wiggle room for them to make moves. It will be interesting to see if they try and move someone like Stokes to improve at PG if they cannot resign Case. Interestingly as far as I can tell this is the only team in the league without a player on his rookie deal (not sure about Bazley but it doesn’t look like a rookie deal). We will see what direction they go into but especially if Case want’s more money than he is currently making it will be tough for the Grizzlies to be real players in free agency this year.
My big take-aways from doing this is that literally the entire league is going to have cap room. Even with the new salary cap system most teams will have enough money to offer at least 1 max contract. Feel free to comment, I took my best stab at potential off-season moves and decision points but obviously I have no idea what GMs are actually thinking. Enjoy!
Midwest
Mavs: Expected Cap Room $14,273,952
Off-season Outlook: The Mavericks are in a tough spot. I am sure they did not expect to be near the bottom of the league with all the moves they made but they have a lot of long term contracts on this team that may be hard to move. The good news is these contracts will look a lot better in the new cap system the bad news is there is a lot of overlap on this team. I could argue that their top 7 players play the same 3 positions (PG SF & PF). I love the contracts that Hundley and Johnson are on but Mobley, Schaffer, Demarco, Barnett and Felici are going to account for 44.5mill of their cap next year and between them average 26mpg and 10.4ppg. That is a LOT of cap space dedicated to players who play at basically a replacement level. With Hundley and Johnson's contracts they could really use that cap space to sign top level talent and build a really good teams because right now their 2 best players make a combined 17mill. If they can make some moves and either sign top free agents or consolidate some of their assets for another star they will be fine but without their own picks they don’t have a lot of wiggle room this off-season.
Nuggets: Expected Cap Room $23,375,000
Off-season Outlook: The Nuggets very smartly gave Oscar an offer he cant refuse. That contract is going to be probably the best in the league next year. They have probably the best situation in the league right now and their big 4 of Oscar, Petit, Cruz, and Steveneirs is signed through at least next year on affordable deals. Really the only thing I can say about them as a potential move is to trade Barros for future picks and then they would be able to max anyone in the league in free agency. That being said if they did that and were able to max Elgin Baylor we might as well all give up now. In my opinion Jerry West and Oscar are the 1A and 1B in the league right now and I would assume that the Nuggets are going to compete at a high level for a long time. They have enough pieces and cap room to get a lot of depth this off-season as well. They are in very good shape.
Rockets: Expected Cap Room $15,258,092
Off-season Outlook: As a Celtics fan I will never forgive them for not turning Bill Russell into a star and because of that his current contract is looking like a huge overpay based on his production. They have some good players on this team and Willis Reed (as long as he gets camped) looks like a surefire stud. They probably should trade one of their PGs for a SF and then they will have a pretty good core and balanced lineup. Best case is they can move Daneu and some other assets for a SF but despite all their issues I do feel like they are only a few moves away from being a player in the west. I would anticipate Reed being a bonafide star next year after another training camp and his rookie scale deal will allow them a lot of flexibility if they can make some moves. Right now SF is a glaring hole for them and given how important of a position it is in this league I think they probably need to address it before they can really make any noise.
Twolves: Expected Cap Room $71,518,437
Off-season Outlook: Well we have finally gotten to the team with the most cap space in the upcoming off-season. The only 2 contracts on their books next year will be one of the best contracts in the league in MIkvy and Harding's rookie deal. I would guess that depending on what Dort wants to resign they may look to bring him back but this team is going to look very different next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to trade some of their players for downgrades will still keeping it as an expiring and trying to add future assets. If I had to guess on priorities for them number 1 would be a PG and a mentor for Harding. If they cant trade for a mentor this year they can super-camp him this year and sign one next year as there should be some available in free agency. Free agency never seems to go according to plan but the Wolves more than any team have the chance to completely remake their team and add a lot of star power this off-season.
Spurs: Expected Cap Room $17,269,665
Off-season Outlook: The Spurs made one of the biggest moves of the season when hey traded Hampton. Dragan and Bogut Jr. To the Jazz for Wilt Chamberlain. The Spurs now have the best big man combo in the league in DD and Wilt. And combined with Jalen Johnson should combine to make one of the highest scoring front-courts in the league. The Spurs have made a lot of moves this season and on paper their lineup of Leque-Smawley-Johnson-DeBusschere-Wilt is one of the best in the league. However, the big question for me is can a team built from the inside out win in this league. Most championship teams best players are in some combination of SF and PG and this is not the case with the Spurs. They also have added a lot of salary for the next few years so they are kind of locked into this core for a while. Personally I like what they are doing and I could see them being one of the best teams in the league next year but if it were me I probably would have waited to see if I could get Queeley and Mannion this off-season and then if not I would have dealt for Smawley and or Lecque. Either way these are promising times for the Spurs.
Jazz: Expected Cap Room $34,191,056
Off-season Outlook: The Jazz were the other half of that Chamberlain trade and now their starting lineup has an average age of 21 years old. They have been making a lot of moves lately and were able to give Hampton an offer he cant refuse. They also bought out the last year of Dragans rookie deal and then gave him an offer he cant refuse as well. This will eat into their cap next year but provided he keeps developing his contract will be much more manageable moving forward than if he had been resigned when his original rookie deal expired and he was signed under the new cap rules. I think the key for this team will be how much Stith develops after his potential is set to A this off-season. If he can make a leap than the Jazz will have one of the best cores in the league. I would expect them to go after a SF, depth pieces, and players who are able to mentor their young guys this off-season. Hopefully with continued development from their young core they will be able to compete in the near future as most of their young pieces are locked up for the foreseeable future.
Grizz: Expected Cap Room $9,789,569
Off-season Outlook: The Grizzlies do not have a lot of cap room this off-season but they don’t necessarily need it. They are one of the better teams in the league and as long as they can retain Everett Case or someone close to his level I think they will continue to be at the top of the western conference. The only issue I see with this team is they are very top heavy. They have 4 players who will make a combined 63mill next year so there is not a lot of wiggle room for them to make moves. It will be interesting to see if they try and move someone like Stokes to improve at PG if they cannot resign Case. Interestingly as far as I can tell this is the only team in the league without a player on his rookie deal (not sure about Bazley but it doesn’t look like a rookie deal). We will see what direction they go into but especially if Case want’s more money than he is currently making it will be tough for the Grizzlies to be real players in free agency this year.
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