Post by zheld32 on Jul 20, 2019 19:29:05 GMT
So I thought I would do an article series on potential cap-space in the new system as well as off-season outlooks for teams. I updated all the figures and as of this posting each teams cap space is accurate. One thing to note though is that these projections don't include the cap holds that draft picks will use so you have to account for how much money they will make. But other than that it should be accurate.
My big take-aways from doing this is that literally the entire league is going to have cap room. Even with the new salary cap system most teams will have enough money to offer at least 1 max contract. Feel free to comment, I took my best stab at potential off-season moves and decision points but obviously I have no idea what GMs are actually thinking. Enjoy!
Pacific
Warriors: Expected Cap Room $17,145,360
Off-season Outlook: The Warriors won’t have enough cap room this year to offer a max contract to anyone. Although they do have a pathway to getting enough cap room to offer a max deal to players if they deal Wiley and Zawoluk who do not contribute much for them. The warriors do have one of the best contracts in the league and with the new system maybe the single best contract in the league in Paunovic. He is signed for 5 more years after this one at a flat rate of just under 16mill. He is a player and has a contract that the warriors can build around. Right now the warriors have a 2 superstars and a bunch of good players. In he off-season I can foresee them trying to consolidate some of their assets to land one more star and make a run at the playoffs but for now they are stuck playing .500 basketball.
Clippers: Expected Cap Room $6,449,171
Off-season Outlook: I take it back..Larry Costello has the best contract in the league. The clippers are in a good position here 3rd in the west and within striking distance of the 1 seed. The big decision for them this off-season is if Johnny Green can take over for Kerris. They will need to make some moves (probably finding takers for green and dick groat if they want to extend Kerris and keep him but they have the ability to keep this core together for a while longer under the new salary cap rules. They have probably he best back-court in the league and because of Costello’s contract they can afford to keep it together. It is probably going to be hard for teams to keep up with the Nuggets in the coming years but the Clippers are a team that I think could do it. If I had to pick a team that wasn’t one of the top seeds to win a championship this year I would probably pick them.
Lakers: Expected Cap Room $26,813,309
Off-season Outlook: The Lakers have the keys to the off-season. They have a top 5 player in Baylor on an expiring contract. They can most definitely keep him but if they give him a 7 year max deal it would start at 28mill and in year 7 would be almost 57MILL!!! They would need to let every single one of their players go and probably need to trade one of the Jones to make it work under the cap. They may be able to squeeze a Baylor max contract in if they find takers for Lemon, Casey, and Bunge but they would still need to fill out the rest of their roster with min players if they wanted to keep their big 3 together. My guess would be if Baylor offers to resign with Lakers they will quietly look into sign and trades and will be able to get a top young player for him. One thing is sure that Baylor and Nico Mannion will get max offers from almost every team in the league.
Suns: Expected Cap Room $42,173,334
Off-season Outlook: The Suns put themselves squarely in the mix for some of the top free agents with their recent moves. I actually think one of the keys to their off-season will be the development of Recalcati. Milos is having maybe one of the better seasons of his career but only has one more year left on his contract after this one. I am envisioning the Suns signing someone like Queeley at SG Bridges taking a below max deal and suddenly if Recalcati and Bridges take the next step they will have a pretty good looking team. They are going to have clear needs in their front-court (definitely C maybe PF depending on Bridges) and they will have a need at SG if Sharman leaves. They have a good core right now and have maneuvered through a lot of changes this season. They are one of the teams to watch this off-season as depending on how they do in free agency I think they can be a contender or a possible tear-down team next year (especially with new cap rules).
Blazers: Expected Cap Room $33,024,757
Off-season Outlook: The defending champs are right back in the thick of things this season and will have enough money to offer a max contract in the off-season. Oddly enough the Blazers will have the ability to get Queeley back in free agency if they want. They could also try and get another 10mill type player to play SG and try and resign some of their bigs. Between Ferry, Goga, and Barlow the Blazers have probably the best big man rotation in the league. Only Goga is signed long term but they will get Polyvoda next year from Russia and he looks like he could step in and do a good job for them at PF next to Goga. Having him on a rookie deal would allow the Blazers to invest in any max level player that they want. They are set up nicely with some below market contracts to be able to sustain success in the new cap system. Right now their only real weakness may be SG, but it is clear they like to build from the inside out.
Kings: Expected Cap Room $43,802,744
Off-season Outlook: The Kings cap sheet is a mess but with the new rules these contracts wont look too bad. Also they still have almost 44mill in cap space this off-season and their 2 big off-season additions Puggy Bell and Josip Gjergia have not been bad. Bell is one of the better rebounders in the league for a SF and both he and Josip are right around 20ppg. Weirdly enough if the Kings are able to sign a star PF this off-season and draft Nate Thurmond 1st overall they will have a pretty interesting starting lineup. Curly Neal if properly camped looks like he could be a very good player and even though they are challenging for one of the worst records in recent memory they are not in horrible shape. These contracts will be very movable in the off-season especially to teams that miss out on the big free agents. I will be interested to see what they do this off-season.
Sonics: Expected Cap Room $44,163,055
Off-season Outlook: The Sonics have one of the 3 or 4 best young players in the league in Ja Morant locked up on a below market contract as well as a 19 year old 6’5 PG (Fedor) averaging 18ppg. I think they could be one of the better back-courts in the league in the near future but to be elite the Sonics are going to have to do some work this off-season. I would guess they would want to dump Krumins or some of their lower tier youth so they could offer 2 max contracts but I am envisioning this team with a star SF and C that they sign in free agency with Morant and Fedor and they could make some noise next year. I would expect that they would be involved in the Elgin Baylor sweepstakes but someone like Dino Meneghin at C or Chia at SF would be good targets for them as well. The Pacific division has a lot of intriguing teams and the Sonics are definitely one of my favorites.
My big take-aways from doing this is that literally the entire league is going to have cap room. Even with the new salary cap system most teams will have enough money to offer at least 1 max contract. Feel free to comment, I took my best stab at potential off-season moves and decision points but obviously I have no idea what GMs are actually thinking. Enjoy!
Pacific
Warriors: Expected Cap Room $17,145,360
Off-season Outlook: The Warriors won’t have enough cap room this year to offer a max contract to anyone. Although they do have a pathway to getting enough cap room to offer a max deal to players if they deal Wiley and Zawoluk who do not contribute much for them. The warriors do have one of the best contracts in the league and with the new system maybe the single best contract in the league in Paunovic. He is signed for 5 more years after this one at a flat rate of just under 16mill. He is a player and has a contract that the warriors can build around. Right now the warriors have a 2 superstars and a bunch of good players. In he off-season I can foresee them trying to consolidate some of their assets to land one more star and make a run at the playoffs but for now they are stuck playing .500 basketball.
Clippers: Expected Cap Room $6,449,171
Off-season Outlook: I take it back..Larry Costello has the best contract in the league. The clippers are in a good position here 3rd in the west and within striking distance of the 1 seed. The big decision for them this off-season is if Johnny Green can take over for Kerris. They will need to make some moves (probably finding takers for green and dick groat if they want to extend Kerris and keep him but they have the ability to keep this core together for a while longer under the new salary cap rules. They have probably he best back-court in the league and because of Costello’s contract they can afford to keep it together. It is probably going to be hard for teams to keep up with the Nuggets in the coming years but the Clippers are a team that I think could do it. If I had to pick a team that wasn’t one of the top seeds to win a championship this year I would probably pick them.
Lakers: Expected Cap Room $26,813,309
Off-season Outlook: The Lakers have the keys to the off-season. They have a top 5 player in Baylor on an expiring contract. They can most definitely keep him but if they give him a 7 year max deal it would start at 28mill and in year 7 would be almost 57MILL!!! They would need to let every single one of their players go and probably need to trade one of the Jones to make it work under the cap. They may be able to squeeze a Baylor max contract in if they find takers for Lemon, Casey, and Bunge but they would still need to fill out the rest of their roster with min players if they wanted to keep their big 3 together. My guess would be if Baylor offers to resign with Lakers they will quietly look into sign and trades and will be able to get a top young player for him. One thing is sure that Baylor and Nico Mannion will get max offers from almost every team in the league.
Suns: Expected Cap Room $42,173,334
Off-season Outlook: The Suns put themselves squarely in the mix for some of the top free agents with their recent moves. I actually think one of the keys to their off-season will be the development of Recalcati. Milos is having maybe one of the better seasons of his career but only has one more year left on his contract after this one. I am envisioning the Suns signing someone like Queeley at SG Bridges taking a below max deal and suddenly if Recalcati and Bridges take the next step they will have a pretty good looking team. They are going to have clear needs in their front-court (definitely C maybe PF depending on Bridges) and they will have a need at SG if Sharman leaves. They have a good core right now and have maneuvered through a lot of changes this season. They are one of the teams to watch this off-season as depending on how they do in free agency I think they can be a contender or a possible tear-down team next year (especially with new cap rules).
Blazers: Expected Cap Room $33,024,757
Off-season Outlook: The defending champs are right back in the thick of things this season and will have enough money to offer a max contract in the off-season. Oddly enough the Blazers will have the ability to get Queeley back in free agency if they want. They could also try and get another 10mill type player to play SG and try and resign some of their bigs. Between Ferry, Goga, and Barlow the Blazers have probably the best big man rotation in the league. Only Goga is signed long term but they will get Polyvoda next year from Russia and he looks like he could step in and do a good job for them at PF next to Goga. Having him on a rookie deal would allow the Blazers to invest in any max level player that they want. They are set up nicely with some below market contracts to be able to sustain success in the new cap system. Right now their only real weakness may be SG, but it is clear they like to build from the inside out.
Kings: Expected Cap Room $43,802,744
Off-season Outlook: The Kings cap sheet is a mess but with the new rules these contracts wont look too bad. Also they still have almost 44mill in cap space this off-season and their 2 big off-season additions Puggy Bell and Josip Gjergia have not been bad. Bell is one of the better rebounders in the league for a SF and both he and Josip are right around 20ppg. Weirdly enough if the Kings are able to sign a star PF this off-season and draft Nate Thurmond 1st overall they will have a pretty interesting starting lineup. Curly Neal if properly camped looks like he could be a very good player and even though they are challenging for one of the worst records in recent memory they are not in horrible shape. These contracts will be very movable in the off-season especially to teams that miss out on the big free agents. I will be interested to see what they do this off-season.
Sonics: Expected Cap Room $44,163,055
Off-season Outlook: The Sonics have one of the 3 or 4 best young players in the league in Ja Morant locked up on a below market contract as well as a 19 year old 6’5 PG (Fedor) averaging 18ppg. I think they could be one of the better back-courts in the league in the near future but to be elite the Sonics are going to have to do some work this off-season. I would guess they would want to dump Krumins or some of their lower tier youth so they could offer 2 max contracts but I am envisioning this team with a star SF and C that they sign in free agency with Morant and Fedor and they could make some noise next year. I would expect that they would be involved in the Elgin Baylor sweepstakes but someone like Dino Meneghin at C or Chia at SF would be good targets for them as well. The Pacific division has a lot of intriguing teams and the Sonics are definitely one of my favorites.
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