Post by Rog on Jun 3, 2024 5:38:23 GMT
Our first (in game) month is over. The Grizzlies dominated the league early on. The Cavaliers are an early surprise. There have been compelling player developments and trades that have shaken things up. Let's take a look at the things that have stood out so far on the year and assess their likelihood to stick.
1) The Memphis Grizzlies Have Emerged As the Favorites in a Post 76ers Dominant Era
Early on one team has separated themselves from the conversation by starting the season off 13-0 before losing two games back-to-back. What has their dominance thus far? Statistically they don't really jump off the page in any area except one. They absolutely are murdering teams on the boards. They lead the league by almost 3 full rebounds per game. They are currently operating on a +11.6 rebounding advantage. Other than that they just don't jump off the page.
So we've established their strength. The question becomes... Can they continue to absolutely annihilate on the boards? Jarrett Allen right now is averaging 11.7 rebounds per game. That is a big jump but wouldn't be a career high. In fact he had a career worst year last year and is bouncing back to what he was prior to last year. Zion is having a great year on the boards, a full four rebounds a game better than two years ago and a full two rebounds more than he did last year. That B rating does not equate to nearly 14 rebounds a game, I truly think that will regress. However, Scottie Barnes so far has reverted as well to his two years ago form of 9 rebounds per game rather than 7.5, once again I think this continues. The rest of the roster is pretty much doing what I'd expect, SGA is rebounding like he has C rebounding and Levya like he has C+. There is little to make up for Zion's reduction once it happens and I think that does in fact reduce their advantage.
Overall I think the Grizzlies are in great shape. They look like the favorites right now and the way their roster has progressed in training camp and their young players have responded has carried that forward. The Hawks and Wizards revealed a flaw this last sim, they are a bottom 10 team defending the three point shot right now and the Hawks and Wizards were able to exploit that a bit. Like their rebounding though, I think we're dealing with a bit of a small sample size and their perimeter defense will stabalize a bit and their rebounding advantage will come back to earth. This is a 60 win roster, the favorites, but not quite as dominant as they've appeared so far.
Verdict: Valid, not an overreaction
2) The Cavaliers Have Arrived and Are the East's Best Team
At 11-2 the Cavaliers lead the East in the loss column and possess the best winning percentage in the East. Last year the Cavaliers were a 21 win team, so what changed? The biggest move was obviously going and getting 28 year old superstar Luka Doncic. Offensively Doncic is putting up gaudy numbers but frankly his numbers right now are down from his career. If the Cavaliers aren't getting a career best type year out of Doncic why are they 11-2? Because they ARE getting a career year thus far out of Paolo Banchero, at least counting stats wise. Hes putting up 20.7 per game scoring this year, which would be a career high by 2.4 a game. At age 24, that is a realistic jump. He is doing it right now by shooting a whole lot more than he has in his career and also shooting a good bit worse from the field and a good bit better from three. So what happens? Frankly I've got as good of as guess as anyone else. He could continue shooting more shots and get better percentage wise, in which case we're talking about a 25 per game guy. He could shoot less but better and still remain a 20 per game guy. What I don't see is him shooting less and continuing to shoot worse so let's figure on him shooting better but a bit less and remaining the 20+ per game guy he is right now.
Beyond these two major moves the Cavaliers are going to struggle to find a legit third scorer. They have Isaiah Hartenstein and Dylan Harper who are 4th and 3rd in scoring respectively on this team. Harper is a 22 year old rookie, you can't expect more. And I think Hartenstein right now is punching above his level. Their other biggest strength outside of their two big stars is their top five defense. They are second in oPPG, third in oFG% and o3P%, and 2nd in steals. They don't play particularly fast and they give up the 5th least shots in the league. They do come out with 6 more shots and 3 more free throws a game than their opponent, great for a game that relies on counting stats.
I think its realistic to expect them to continue to defend on the perimeter to the level they are. Doncic, Harper, and Haralson are legit good defenders and they will continue to force turnovers at a high rate. I don't think its realistic to continue to expect their oFG% to remain so low without finding a legit rim protector and relying on Banchero to be their second-best defensive post player right now. Finding a defensive, shot blocking third big would be huge for them. I don't believe in this team to win nearly 70 games this year as they are on pace for and I think there are a couple teams better, but they are on a great track and could end up being a major force in the East.
Verdict: Team is valid, best East team is an overrecation
3) The Orlando Magic Have a Best Ever Defense
If the season ended today the Magic would set a record for the least points allowed in a season by over 2 points per game and would break the blocks record along with the Knicks(and Pacers). The latter is explainable by a bit of inflation, but the former is legit flabbergasting as the pace and scoring continues to rise. So what is fueling this change? Last season they gave up 104.9 per game with nearly the same roster, swapping out Kawhi Leonard, Rienk Mast, and Cason Wallace for Cody Williams, Orlando Robinson, and Trae Young. The Cason Wallace for Trae Young swap is a net negative, there is zero doubt about that. Kawhi Leonard for Cody Williams is something that is still up in the air, but at worse it seems about equal. Same rating, averaging about the same stocks but in different ways. Orlando Robinson though is averaging more than a stock more per game than Mast and on the boards he is heavily clearing the combined backup bigs last year.
The biggest jump though for this team is the emergence of Jalen Duren as a legit defensive player of the year candidate. Orlando had hoped he would make that jump last year but he is only 23 and improvement still seemed likely. His rating didn't improve but its clear under the hood there were some big changes. He is averaging 5 stocks per game, led by his massive 3.8 blocks per game. Right now if I had to pick, I'd pick Aday Mara to win DPOTY but him and Duren will duel it out all year with Lively being a really close third as well.
So what is sustainable and what isn't? I think Duren has proven through preseason and the 17 game sample size that he is a legit shot blocker at this point but I'm not sold he is a legit 5 stock guy. Even if that falls to 4.5(where he drops to 3.5 and 1), the defense shouldn't slip much. Despite not being quite as good as the Grizzlies, they are an elite rebounding team capable of ending good defensive possessions. Their oFG% feels far too good and when they play more good teams that will inevitably tick up. Overalll, I think the Magic have a great defense, potentially even historic. I don't think we've seen enough to call it the best ever yet though.
Verdict: Overreaction, need to see more
4) The Hawks Are a Lottery Team a Year after Their Breakout Year
Last year was a fun year for the Hawks. They added Jason Tatum and their youth took steps across the board. Right now they sit at 3-7 and its hard to find a positive. They are pretty good on the boards. Offense hasn't played bad. Thats about it. They struggle with turnovers, don't force turnovers, and they are working too hard to get the points they are getting. Taking the most shots in the league while being only 8th in PPG really spells a problem. The question becomes, what has changed?
Most notably, the Hawks went out and added Giannis Antetokounmpo. So far that move has done absolutely nothing for them. Hes averaging career lows across the board. Shaedon Sharpe, Ivaca Zubac, and Jayson Tatum all seem to have taken a bit of a step back. Carrington has mostly improved but turnovers have creeped up, steals down, and hes shooting worse than last year. The bench is playing a bit worse across the board too with a guy like Ja'Kobe Walter shooting 36.5% from the field and hitting less than 1 three for every 3 he takes.
Look this roster has problems. They went out and tried to get Jayson Tatum a Robin to his Batman in Giannis and it just hasn't worked out. Carrington right now is the second best player on the roster and he just doesn't quite seem ready to be that yet. The team can really shoot the ball and that hasn't reflected yet. No way Ja'Kobe Walter, Shaedon Sharpe, Giannis, and Tatum all shoot as badly as they have so far and you have to think Giannis nudges up closer to 20 points a game. I think they have a legit issue defensively that will need to be sorted out, the post defense is just not good. But this team is too good to be this bad and certain things should revert to the norm as mentioned above and I think this remains a 50 win team.
Verdict: Overreaction, even if the roster is flawed
5) The Nets Took The Wrong Guy, Jared McCain was the Right Pick
Its never too early to call someone a bust. Well, in this case its less than AJ Dybantsa is a bust and more like right now Jared McCain is the best player from the last draft class. Dybantsa is not really doing anything poorly himself, hes averaging 20/7/5/2 right now and helping elevate a pretty bad roster to a respectable(but still bad) 4-7 record. His percentages and turnovers leave a good bit to be desired, but hes 19 years old and putting up a damn good statline. Hes been given pretty much the greenest of green lights, along with Alijah Arenas, to feel it out and find his game. So far so good for him.
Jared McCain on the other hand has been a revelation. The Pelicans are tanking yet are 10-7. Judah Mintz has a lot to say about that as well, averaging 26/8/44 and shooting the hell out of the ball. Together right now he forms one of the best guard duos in the league with McCain contributing 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists to go with 2 steals a game and a 49.2/77.1/42.9 shooting percentage slash line. The rest of the top five aren't doing a ton with Cayden Boozer playing okay but not doing anything special, Tahj Ariza essentially redshirting so far, and Dylan Harper putting up a 15/7/3 statline with bad percentages on a good Cavaliers team.
Clearly it is far too early to crown McCain, or AJ for that matter. We have several TCs and a bunch of camps to go before we figure out who should have went number one. But I'm a huge fan of McCain's game and the Pelicans really know how to develop them. I don't think this is an overreaction so much as its an early reaction with not enough data one way or the other.
Verdict: Overreaction, due to lack of data
6) It's Cooper Flagg's World and We're Just Living In It
Since he was drafted, Cooper Flagg has been pegged as the league's best player for a long while. In his third season, he has won the first player of the month this year. Anyone who has been playing FBB for a long time knows how hard it is for a big to win that and extrapolating further, MVP. So is Flagg the best player in the league? Well.. probably? Right now he is averaging 26 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 3.1 stocks and only 1.6 turnovers while shooting 47.2% from the field, 79.2% from the line, and 42% from three. His entire skill set right now is a B+ or better. The man is only 21 years old, still getting better, and hes absolutely destroying the league.
Who are the other candidates? Jokic leads the league in scoring right now, has an MVP way back in 2023, and has a prety similar skillset. Currently, I think Jokic's offensive numbers are a bit inflated and if he comes back down to what hes averaged the last few years, the rest of Flagg's game is just better. Two time MVP and two time Playoff MVP Tyrese Maxey remains a popular best player pick. And for good reason given the hardware, but personally his wards are FBB driven and while hes in the discussion, I still would rather have the all around impact that Flagg has right now. Plus I'll take the 30+ PPG that De'Aaron Fox has always offered plus a bit more in the steal department. Hes leading the league with Nikola Jokic in scoring right now and I think he is probably the only guy I'd consider over Flagg at this point.
Flagg is on the path to being one of those FBB players that is so good it masks roster flaws and makes contenders despite it. His rebounding is elite, hes as good of a post scorer as their is, and his passing is incredible. There isn't much stopping this man from being the best player in the league for the next 10+ years. The prophesied world-beater has offically become a world beater. And for my money hes the best NBN has to offer right now.
Verdict: Valid, not an overreaction though best is subjective right now
So we've established their strength. The question becomes... Can they continue to absolutely annihilate on the boards? Jarrett Allen right now is averaging 11.7 rebounds per game. That is a big jump but wouldn't be a career high. In fact he had a career worst year last year and is bouncing back to what he was prior to last year. Zion is having a great year on the boards, a full four rebounds a game better than two years ago and a full two rebounds more than he did last year. That B rating does not equate to nearly 14 rebounds a game, I truly think that will regress. However, Scottie Barnes so far has reverted as well to his two years ago form of 9 rebounds per game rather than 7.5, once again I think this continues. The rest of the roster is pretty much doing what I'd expect, SGA is rebounding like he has C rebounding and Levya like he has C+. There is little to make up for Zion's reduction once it happens and I think that does in fact reduce their advantage.
Overall I think the Grizzlies are in great shape. They look like the favorites right now and the way their roster has progressed in training camp and their young players have responded has carried that forward. The Hawks and Wizards revealed a flaw this last sim, they are a bottom 10 team defending the three point shot right now and the Hawks and Wizards were able to exploit that a bit. Like their rebounding though, I think we're dealing with a bit of a small sample size and their perimeter defense will stabalize a bit and their rebounding advantage will come back to earth. This is a 60 win roster, the favorites, but not quite as dominant as they've appeared so far.
Verdict: Valid, not an overreaction
2) The Cavaliers Have Arrived and Are the East's Best Team
At 11-2 the Cavaliers lead the East in the loss column and possess the best winning percentage in the East. Last year the Cavaliers were a 21 win team, so what changed? The biggest move was obviously going and getting 28 year old superstar Luka Doncic. Offensively Doncic is putting up gaudy numbers but frankly his numbers right now are down from his career. If the Cavaliers aren't getting a career best type year out of Doncic why are they 11-2? Because they ARE getting a career year thus far out of Paolo Banchero, at least counting stats wise. Hes putting up 20.7 per game scoring this year, which would be a career high by 2.4 a game. At age 24, that is a realistic jump. He is doing it right now by shooting a whole lot more than he has in his career and also shooting a good bit worse from the field and a good bit better from three. So what happens? Frankly I've got as good of as guess as anyone else. He could continue shooting more shots and get better percentage wise, in which case we're talking about a 25 per game guy. He could shoot less but better and still remain a 20 per game guy. What I don't see is him shooting less and continuing to shoot worse so let's figure on him shooting better but a bit less and remaining the 20+ per game guy he is right now.
Beyond these two major moves the Cavaliers are going to struggle to find a legit third scorer. They have Isaiah Hartenstein and Dylan Harper who are 4th and 3rd in scoring respectively on this team. Harper is a 22 year old rookie, you can't expect more. And I think Hartenstein right now is punching above his level. Their other biggest strength outside of their two big stars is their top five defense. They are second in oPPG, third in oFG% and o3P%, and 2nd in steals. They don't play particularly fast and they give up the 5th least shots in the league. They do come out with 6 more shots and 3 more free throws a game than their opponent, great for a game that relies on counting stats.
I think its realistic to expect them to continue to defend on the perimeter to the level they are. Doncic, Harper, and Haralson are legit good defenders and they will continue to force turnovers at a high rate. I don't think its realistic to continue to expect their oFG% to remain so low without finding a legit rim protector and relying on Banchero to be their second-best defensive post player right now. Finding a defensive, shot blocking third big would be huge for them. I don't believe in this team to win nearly 70 games this year as they are on pace for and I think there are a couple teams better, but they are on a great track and could end up being a major force in the East.
Verdict: Team is valid, best East team is an overrecation
3) The Orlando Magic Have a Best Ever Defense
If the season ended today the Magic would set a record for the least points allowed in a season by over 2 points per game and would break the blocks record along with the Knicks(and Pacers). The latter is explainable by a bit of inflation, but the former is legit flabbergasting as the pace and scoring continues to rise. So what is fueling this change? Last season they gave up 104.9 per game with nearly the same roster, swapping out Kawhi Leonard, Rienk Mast, and Cason Wallace for Cody Williams, Orlando Robinson, and Trae Young. The Cason Wallace for Trae Young swap is a net negative, there is zero doubt about that. Kawhi Leonard for Cody Williams is something that is still up in the air, but at worse it seems about equal. Same rating, averaging about the same stocks but in different ways. Orlando Robinson though is averaging more than a stock more per game than Mast and on the boards he is heavily clearing the combined backup bigs last year.
The biggest jump though for this team is the emergence of Jalen Duren as a legit defensive player of the year candidate. Orlando had hoped he would make that jump last year but he is only 23 and improvement still seemed likely. His rating didn't improve but its clear under the hood there were some big changes. He is averaging 5 stocks per game, led by his massive 3.8 blocks per game. Right now if I had to pick, I'd pick Aday Mara to win DPOTY but him and Duren will duel it out all year with Lively being a really close third as well.
So what is sustainable and what isn't? I think Duren has proven through preseason and the 17 game sample size that he is a legit shot blocker at this point but I'm not sold he is a legit 5 stock guy. Even if that falls to 4.5(where he drops to 3.5 and 1), the defense shouldn't slip much. Despite not being quite as good as the Grizzlies, they are an elite rebounding team capable of ending good defensive possessions. Their oFG% feels far too good and when they play more good teams that will inevitably tick up. Overalll, I think the Magic have a great defense, potentially even historic. I don't think we've seen enough to call it the best ever yet though.
Verdict: Overreaction, need to see more
4) The Hawks Are a Lottery Team a Year after Their Breakout Year
Last year was a fun year for the Hawks. They added Jason Tatum and their youth took steps across the board. Right now they sit at 3-7 and its hard to find a positive. They are pretty good on the boards. Offense hasn't played bad. Thats about it. They struggle with turnovers, don't force turnovers, and they are working too hard to get the points they are getting. Taking the most shots in the league while being only 8th in PPG really spells a problem. The question becomes, what has changed?
Most notably, the Hawks went out and added Giannis Antetokounmpo. So far that move has done absolutely nothing for them. Hes averaging career lows across the board. Shaedon Sharpe, Ivaca Zubac, and Jayson Tatum all seem to have taken a bit of a step back. Carrington has mostly improved but turnovers have creeped up, steals down, and hes shooting worse than last year. The bench is playing a bit worse across the board too with a guy like Ja'Kobe Walter shooting 36.5% from the field and hitting less than 1 three for every 3 he takes.
Look this roster has problems. They went out and tried to get Jayson Tatum a Robin to his Batman in Giannis and it just hasn't worked out. Carrington right now is the second best player on the roster and he just doesn't quite seem ready to be that yet. The team can really shoot the ball and that hasn't reflected yet. No way Ja'Kobe Walter, Shaedon Sharpe, Giannis, and Tatum all shoot as badly as they have so far and you have to think Giannis nudges up closer to 20 points a game. I think they have a legit issue defensively that will need to be sorted out, the post defense is just not good. But this team is too good to be this bad and certain things should revert to the norm as mentioned above and I think this remains a 50 win team.
Verdict: Overreaction, even if the roster is flawed
5) The Nets Took The Wrong Guy, Jared McCain was the Right Pick
Its never too early to call someone a bust. Well, in this case its less than AJ Dybantsa is a bust and more like right now Jared McCain is the best player from the last draft class. Dybantsa is not really doing anything poorly himself, hes averaging 20/7/5/2 right now and helping elevate a pretty bad roster to a respectable(but still bad) 4-7 record. His percentages and turnovers leave a good bit to be desired, but hes 19 years old and putting up a damn good statline. Hes been given pretty much the greenest of green lights, along with Alijah Arenas, to feel it out and find his game. So far so good for him.
Jared McCain on the other hand has been a revelation. The Pelicans are tanking yet are 10-7. Judah Mintz has a lot to say about that as well, averaging 26/8/44 and shooting the hell out of the ball. Together right now he forms one of the best guard duos in the league with McCain contributing 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists to go with 2 steals a game and a 49.2/77.1/42.9 shooting percentage slash line. The rest of the top five aren't doing a ton with Cayden Boozer playing okay but not doing anything special, Tahj Ariza essentially redshirting so far, and Dylan Harper putting up a 15/7/3 statline with bad percentages on a good Cavaliers team.
Clearly it is far too early to crown McCain, or AJ for that matter. We have several TCs and a bunch of camps to go before we figure out who should have went number one. But I'm a huge fan of McCain's game and the Pelicans really know how to develop them. I don't think this is an overreaction so much as its an early reaction with not enough data one way or the other.
Verdict: Overreaction, due to lack of data
6) It's Cooper Flagg's World and We're Just Living In It
Since he was drafted, Cooper Flagg has been pegged as the league's best player for a long while. In his third season, he has won the first player of the month this year. Anyone who has been playing FBB for a long time knows how hard it is for a big to win that and extrapolating further, MVP. So is Flagg the best player in the league? Well.. probably? Right now he is averaging 26 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 3.1 stocks and only 1.6 turnovers while shooting 47.2% from the field, 79.2% from the line, and 42% from three. His entire skill set right now is a B+ or better. The man is only 21 years old, still getting better, and hes absolutely destroying the league.
Who are the other candidates? Jokic leads the league in scoring right now, has an MVP way back in 2023, and has a prety similar skillset. Currently, I think Jokic's offensive numbers are a bit inflated and if he comes back down to what hes averaged the last few years, the rest of Flagg's game is just better. Two time MVP and two time Playoff MVP Tyrese Maxey remains a popular best player pick. And for good reason given the hardware, but personally his wards are FBB driven and while hes in the discussion, I still would rather have the all around impact that Flagg has right now. Plus I'll take the 30+ PPG that De'Aaron Fox has always offered plus a bit more in the steal department. Hes leading the league with Nikola Jokic in scoring right now and I think he is probably the only guy I'd consider over Flagg at this point.
Flagg is on the path to being one of those FBB players that is so good it masks roster flaws and makes contenders despite it. His rebounding is elite, hes as good of a post scorer as their is, and his passing is incredible. There isn't much stopping this man from being the best player in the league for the next 10+ years. The prophesied world-beater has offically become a world beater. And for my money hes the best NBN has to offer right now.
Verdict: Valid, not an overreaction though best is subjective right now
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