Post by Rog on Oct 21, 2017 2:53:28 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to last year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that.
Previous Versions:
2025 2026
And lets look at the best draft in a little while:
Note: Please remember to subtract a number from each ranking for their actual ranking. No player is missing here. I don't know what exactly I did differently last year to subtract the top column to get it right, but I'm losing my mind right now and I gave up. Oh well.
Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- George Mikan comes in with a clear high score of 67.25. There was no question who was the best player in this class, just a matter of how much. And 3 points is a lot, especially considering he doesn't have an age bonus over Cooper or Olembe, and Butch McRae and Vern are younger. Hes a full 2 points better than last years number 1, Jayden Nicholson, who is only slightly better than the rest of the top 5 is. With his notes as well, there almost has never been a more obvious number 1 pick.
- The second player is a bit surprising, a 6'4" center with the name of Tarzan Cooper. Hes actually a real life Hall of Famer, by the way. He is trumped up a bit, to the point where he will be on my bust list, because of his B- handles. Good player. Also has no notes. At number three is Jahsemar Olembe, a promising 21 year old small forward with good starting ratings. Literally has no flaw. Should be considered at 2.
- Coming at number 4 is Butch McRae. McRae is a 6'7'' point guard with fantastic starting ratings. Though he continues the trend of point guards coming in with raw offense, McRae's size, age, and passing ability make him a likely high pick. His notes are good as well. Could be pick three if a team there needs a point guard. Rounding out top 5 is the likely number 2 pick in the draft, Vern Mikkelsen. Not does he have okay height(6'7"), but also has the best starting ratings in the draft besides George Mikan. His D handles are rough, but not an issue to me. Plus his notes are crazy good, even taken #2 instead of #1.
- Looking at the top half of the bottom half of the top 10, haha look at that, Ty Rodgers looks fantastic with the only real flaw being his B potential in my opinion. Lance Richard at #7 is a new bust, as I don't think C- inside at SF is sustainable or even pliable. And Sonny Johnson Jr. at #8 looks fascinating but he needs camps to improve him I think and it will be interesting to see him develop.
- Otto Stangel at #9 is either going to make someone incredibly happy they drafted him or incredibly mad. At 18, he has a shit load of potential to grow and continue to grow for a while. However he comes in with C+ outside and B- defense. He has a solid B inside rating. But the biggest potential issue is he is 6'0" and is a small forward. Pick at your own risk and potentially get greatly rewarded.
- Other interesting prospects down the board include Essome Miyem at #12, who is the only 7 footer in the draft. He also has good ratings to start. However an injury in college keeps him out his rookie year and potentially his second season with catastrophic potential results. Pick at your own risk.
- Theodoros Papaloukas is the most likely top Euro pick, eligible to backup PG with his size and rebounding abilities makes him a prime candidate to be a low risk, high reward type player as he seemingly always has a spot in the league with his abilities to backup the 1/2/3.
- There are some guys staying overseas with Tarik Biberovic at #21 being the best ranking wise. He has good size as well as a highly modern game. Plus hes 18. All the way down at 30 is Timur Krupalja. He could be a steal at 18 years old and a 2 year stash before he can be camped.
- Its very much worth noting that this draft looks markably stronger than the last coupler. Just compared to last year, you can take a number at look at it randomly, the dead middle of the first round(12ish through 17ish) being the only exception. This draft is top heavy, then balanced, and has a lot of guys late that are extremely interesting. Picks should be worth a lot.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly.
- Bust predictions: Tarzan Cooper at #2, Lance Richard at #7, Josh Pinkston at #14
- Sleeper predictions: George Mikan at #1, Vern Mikkelsen at #5, Anatoly Konev at #16, Nigel James at #33.
*
