Post by Rog on Jan 7, 2018 22:12:32 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
NewSGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- Coming in at number 1, with no surprise at all, is Bob Cousy with an insane score of 68.5. That is the highest score since we've begun doing this, by a full point over George Mikan. He is the obvious #1 pick with crazy name recognition. He also has some of the best, most unique notes in history of notes, you'd be pretty dumb to not take him #1 unless you have an absolute stud at PG and really like another guy. Even still, might want to trade that vet stud for assets. He had an excellent pre draft camp, garnering first team honors and looking like a franchise point guard who can do it all. A little development and the right team, and he will be absolutely incredible.
- At #2 is a guy that I don't have any idea where he'll land. Short, but with A- inside and C outside, combined with B rebounding and being only 20, Alex Groza looks like a great center prospect, though slightly flawed. And then you look at his notes and wonder how much risk you want to run with his 25% chance to leave the league. That is each season of his rookie deal, increasing the odds he'll be banned. Seems like a stupid high risk and his notes have no upshot. He may be lucky to end up being a lottery pick.
- Coming in at number three, and tied with two other players so we'll talk about them here too, is Kiyan Anthony. With crazy good scoring, amazing size, only 20 years old, and C+ rebounding at SF, he shows out as a potentially elite scoring SF prospect. As for his notes, well they are going to be positive no matter what, but how positive depends on his placement with his friends. At number 9 is Zion Wade, a slashing shooting guard who also is a fantastic defender and has a great all around game. He came in a bit low for what he is, just due to the fact that he is punished pretty hard for his C+ outside. I'd rather have him than say, Luguentz Dort, who we'll talk about in a second, given his name, notes, and overall better offense, but that is a debate for another day.
- And finally, son of NBN legend Lebron James is Bryce Maximus James, coming in at #10. With 6'4" size, playing point guard, being 20 years old as well, and leading the league in assists in his pre draft camps. I think he is certainly a top 5 pick with his amazing size, great passing ability, and solid defense. Plus again, his notes make him very interesting, depending on where he is drafted.
- Going back to the top 5, the top 5 is rounded off by two very interesting, somewhat flawed players with good scores for their positions. At #4 is Luguentz Dort, a 19 year old Canadian who will remain in Europe for another season, before coming over. He is a lesser offensive version of Wade, but with better handles, similar defense, and much better rebounding. Plus he is a year younger. I don't think he'll end up going over Wade, but it is an interesting discussion nonetheless. At number 5 is 6'11 center with solid notes, Share has a solid overall game, but is somewhat raw and somewhat in between. Good thing he has notes to take him in the direction you choose. Should be at top 10 pick with his size and decent ratings.
- More interest in the top 10, at #6 is Skinny Johnson, who is a 6'4, 190 pound center. Size isn't taken into account in our analysis, but I don't imagine him a lotto pick with those ratings and that size. Should be interesting to see where he gets picked and who takes that risk. At #8 is Kareem Queeley, a guy who has been described to be a generational international player, but doesn't check out as the top in the draft. I like him personally better than Dort given his great starting scoring. He could end up to top 5.
- There are a ton of point guards in this draft in the first round, from Cousy and James in the top 10. At number 7 is Charlie T Black, an undersized point guard who can shoot and is a good defender, but has low inside and handles. At #14 is Al Cervi, another guy lacking offense and exceptional at defense. Dick McGuire is #17, this one is a great distributor, good defender, but seriously not a good offensive player again. Lastly in the first round, #20 is Ivo Daneu, a 6'3" 18 year old that is not only raw offensively, he is flat out bad offensively. With C C offense, it'll be a wonder if he actually is a first rounder. But his size, B+ handles, and age will make him a fascinating pick later.
- As has been going on for a few years, size is seriously becoming a premium. Only one player is above 7 foot, and that is 7 foot 7 center, Robert Bobroczky. He checks in at number 51, and doesn't really project as much. But his size, rebounding, and the fact that he is 18 years old and his size, he might get picked somewhat high. There are only three other players that are 6'10" or larger. Chuck Share we've already talked about, but staying overseas for three years, is the only 17 year old in the draft and #32 on our rankings, Viktor Vlasov. He is 6'11", and is one of the worst inside scorers we've ever seen. Its a wonder he checks in this high. He literally does nothing exceptional, and has B- rebounding for his best rating. But being 17, and again with his size, he'll probably end up a hot commodity. At 21 is Ron Livingstone, a 6'10" center with solid defense and raw other ratings. Not much to say here really, hes a meh middle of the road prospect who will end up in D-League and his potential will determine his worth.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Alex Grozer at #2, Skinny Johnson at #6, Ivo Daneu at #20
- Sleeper predictions: Bryce Maximus James at #10, Leopoldo Contarbio at #13, Valdis Muiznieks at #22.
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