Post by Rog on Feb 16, 2018 4:40:18 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
NewSGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
Keep in mind this year, Charles computer was down and he had all the formula info. He tried his best to help me get it set up, then walk kipper through the formula's intricacies. There might have been something missed, so this year might not be 100% on formula.
Previous Versions:
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- Coming in at number one, and by pretty small margin surprisingly to me, is Dolph Schayes. Schayes looks like the perfect 4 for this league and how its moving. I could see a future where he puts up 20 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 stocks and limited turnovers. If he reaches that, he is absolutely justified in being the #1 player in this class. The drawback is his somewhat meh notes and the fact that he enters the league at 21, and not a teen. But overall, hes a fantastic prospect.
- At number 2, by only a quarter of a point, is Mel Hutchins. Hutchins comes into the league with a great base. He has a decent offensive game, amazing on defense with that 'A-' grade, and can board decently too. He is yet another short center with a ton of talent, so who knows how it works out. He has no notes, and does need some work offensively but with his ratings and his age, he seems like a solid bet to be pretty good.
- This draft had a pretty easy and ready top 5, largely due to notes, but one player stops the same thing from being true in these rankings. At #3, is Bill Sharman, a sharp shooter who has fun notes. He has good ratings and I think he will pretty much guaranteed end up with A+ outside scoring. If the rest of his game develops, he might end up a future Hall of Famer just based on how good his shooting should end up. At number 4 is George Yardley. Yardley starts out with a crazy nice variation of ratings, especially offensively. He was dragged down slightly for his defense being C+, but his overall game is nice and balanced. He does have a turnover issue as evidenced by the pre draft camps, but hes clearly among the 5 best players in the class and has a decent chance to get to the superstar status. At #5 is the deviation I talked about at the beginning of this bullet point. Moose Krouse actually just went at pick 11 in the draft, and he shows up top 5 here. I personally hate him for his size(which I still say isn't a huge deal, but evidence starting to stack up otherwise), but mostly due to his defense and rebounding ratings being somewhat low. And finally at #6, is our #1 pick due to his impressive notes that should allow his GM to shape who he becomes, and that is Don Barksdale. He has a very well rounded game and is only really given an issue due to his age, being 21. But his ratings and draft notes combine into a potent combination that should allow him to be really fucking good really fucking fast.
- The next three picks are quite interesting too, enough so to talk about all 3 despite the normal things here. At #7 is Chia Chungchang, who is the first international player on the board and with much controversy around the league for his name, Chungchang is an actual person and his name is not Chingchang. He has good size for what we are seeing these days, has a solid all around game, and is only 18. Should develop well. His outside being somewhat low is worrying, but that is about all there is to worry about. Don't look at his 5.8 turnovers in pre draft camps, nope. At #8 is our first point guard, Marques Haynes. He shot up the board crazy high despite having 1 rating in the Bs or higher, and that is his magnificent A handles, day one. I'm not personally all that high on him and think 8 is a bit of a reach, but the point guard class is not great. At #9 is George Williams, a 6'9" post player in an era with too many short dudes playing down there, he has great ratings and was damanged mostly due to the bad handles rating that is not important for a center unless they just flat out turn it over too much. His biggest worry is actually his notes, which do give a bonus for staying healthy but he may have issues with that due to his knees. Time will tell.
- Looking back to last year, in comparison and again remembering there might be differences in the formula, obviously Cousy coming and being a historical prospect with some damn impressive notes too was #1 and was pretty far and clear from the 67 of the top player this year. But #2 is better than last year's #2, and the draft stacks up decently well from a depth perspective comparatively too. It flip flips, but things look pretty even all the way down. Fun stuff.
- Just looking at some random stuff at this point, the tallest player in the draft is Charles Bediako at 6'10" with serious flaws and is 22 years old. He checks in at #49 here, good enough for the later half of the 2nd round. The shortest player is directly after him at #50, at 5'9" and being a shooting guard, showing solid scoring ratings and honestly to be looking like the better prospect. The next point guard after Haynes in the top 10 is Milos Teodosic, a talented looking offensive point guard who is 18 and has good notes under the right circumstances. He looks to be a lot of fun but will need a decent amount of work.
- Speaking of international guys, its a somewhat weak class for them. After Chungchang and Teodosic, who both went to the Hornets, Dejan Bodiroga is #19, but is 23 years old, doesn't look to play much defense and probably will have turnover issues too. He would have been a near elite prospect 4 years ago at 19, but now he slots in at #19 and ended up still in the lotto. Tough class this year for internationals, and there really isn't many stars left from that class of players.
- Looking at notes, we've covered most of them with Schayes being okay, Sharman having among the best, and Barksdale outright causing him to go #1 despite showing up #6 here. Johnny Simmons is a 2nd round prospect who probably will end up a higher pick due to his notes giving first access to the #11 player on the board, Connie Simmons. Slats Gill has good teammate notes, but hes the #53 player on the board here, will be interesting to see how far up the latter his notes get him. A really interesting story will be Howie Shannon, whose best value will most likely come up with his retirement rather than anything he does as a player. He has notes to transition him to the teams HC and get 2 discounted and free from being counted, team improvement camps. But if his 'F' potential is just a mirage and he really develops, that starting B+ B+ offense will be tough to force to retire. He checks in at #59 due to that 'F' scouted potential.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Moose Krouse at #5, Marquese Haynes at #8, Jack Kerris at #14
- Sleeper predictions: Don Barksdale at #6, Milos Teodosic at #16, Ernie Vandeweghe at #33
*
