Post by Rog on Mar 25, 2018 0:31:11 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- With the highest score we've ever seen, number one is a point guard by the name of Slater Martin. His ratings are pretty insane with a A- defense, solid outside and handles, and being only 20 he is a damn good prospect. His score would be the highest score ever, but I am going to heavily preface that by saying this formula may or may not be the most robust we've done, resulting in some higher scores. We redid it with Charle's new computer, so its not the same one we'd use prior to last year. Regardless, Martin is a great prospect with some decent notes and amazing ratings. He should end up no less than a fantastic starter, though should be an out and out superstar.
- The guy who I think is the best prospect in the draft in all actuality is the number 2 prospect on this list. At 19 years old and better scoring ratings than Slater, Sean MacDonald is another in what has become a stacked point guard draft. His notes get him really nice athletic bonuses, so take advantage of them if you draft him. I think he'll end up the best player in this draft personally, so I think the Nets will end up pretty damn happy.
- Looking at the rest of the top 5, its a crazy top of the draft with ratings that would be top 2 in every other draft since we've done this, if not top pick. Clyde Lovelette, a solid number 1 pick in this draft is number 3. He is a proper height big man who was the best player int he pre draft camps, as well as the best big in the draft by far. His B C+ scoring combined with B+ B defensive/rebounding ratings make him a damn well rounded big. Unless he has serious under the hood issues, he was the safest top 5 pick in this draft. His notes aren't amazing, but find the right SF and get double mentor ratings and he could be a stud with that camp. Trae Young is another great point guard in this draft, though his turnovers in predraft camps and his lack of defense showing on the roster page, he does have more flaws than the top 3 in the draft. He has good size and great offensive ratings, he should end up no worse than a good starter. No notes do hamper his fun a little bit though, so he might slip some more. Finally rounding out the top 5 is Earl Lloyd, a guy I don't think is worthy of a top 5 pick personally, but was autoed to the Rockets at #3. He will end up at worst a Shane Battier type guy who could potentially end up way more. I'm not saying he is a bad pick as high as he is ranked, but his lack of offense at the moment has me a bit worried. Could end up a star though.
- This draft is absolutely stacked in international prospects, more than I've ever seen. We've already talked about Sean MacDonald, but at #6 is Oscar Schmidt, and 18 year old with unreal scoring ability. He showed it off with incredible touch in pre draft camps and would be in consideration for top pick in any other draft. He has serious defensive flaws, but the right mentor would really help that due to his notes. At #7, Drazen Dalipagic, is yet another 18 year old small forward with great scoring ability. He falls behind Schmidt due to being slightly worse offensively, but is probably a safer pick due to being better everywhere else. His big issue however is turnovers, as he showed heavily in pre draft camps. He does have notes to fix them, but would have to team up with Oscar Furlong to do so, another probable lotto pick. Furlong, comes in at number 9. Furlong is a 19 year old, small as hell power forward out of Argentina. He has a solid overall game, and his only real worry should be if he'll work out at PF with his size and turnover issues. If he can overcome his size, he is a solid pick anywhere outside the top 5. Right behind him is Sergei Belov at #10. He is an 18 year old, maybe, shooting guard out of the Soviet Union. Belov looks like a great shooting guard prospect who would go top 5 in any other draft. However, he has potentially negative notes that would add 5 years to his age if he is found out to actually be older than the USSR has reported him as. That would put a huge damper on his stock. The last international player in the lotto, one of six in the top 13, is Wu Chengzhang. He will spend 3 years still in China, but is part of the next wave of Chinese players who really want to make their mark on the league. He will have issues with size and his offensive abilities leave a bit to be desired, but if he is picked in the lotto he will have SEVEN years of camps, assuming the first three are in the off season. That is insane and a great note. Crazy amount of high picks should be international players. Its about time though, the international classes have been weak for a little while.
- Given the potential changes in the formula that aren't really all that well quantified, I don't want to compare to much to year's past, but looking at this year to last year is incredible. #2 Sean MacDonald would be #1 in last year's class. #6 Oscar Schmidt would be #3 in that class. So would #9 Oscar Furlong. #13 Chengzhang would be #7 last year. Its just a better draft. The depth is pretty comparable though, so its not crazy deep comparatively, until you get into the 60s and 70s who were shitty fillers last year and we have guys that are real all the way through 103. Incredible draft, incredible job by our commish.
- Some random info for this class coming now. Uljana Semjonova, ranked #102, is the first woman in history to play in NBN. She will most likely not be drafted, though if she ends up on a roster she will receive a free PED camp in every season she is in the league. She should end up with her notes and size on a D-League roster pretty easily. Despite the size, she isn't the tallest player in the class. That is shared by two people, one being Isaac Haas. He is 7'2" and looks decent enough, but due to his D potential he actually ends up being the worst rated player through this analysis in the class. Very much a G-League option, probably to be picked up via the G-League draft coming up. Paschal Chukwu shares the tallest player designation as well. Sadly he looks worse, but has better scouted potential and is ranked #97. He will probably never touch the NBN due to his very much average ratings. The shortest player is also a G-League candidate with his ratings, coming in rated #64. He'll be picked up for someone's G-League team.
- Looking at notes, its impossible to look at all of them since there is a ton this year. Just looking at the ones that stick out here. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman is the #91 rated player in this class, but given his notes I'd imagine he'll be drafted. Unless his potential is a literal F, and he dies a quick death, he should be able to be turned into at least a depth piece given his notes(G-League bonuses, doesn't have to be sent up due to awards, and eligible for two Diamond in the Rough Camps). The #34 player in the draft is more valuable as a player on a teams bench who isn't IRed or G-Leagued, but doesn't play given his ability to help his teammates ratings. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, at #16, is another good point guard prospect in this class. However, his notes make him almost a necessity to go top 10 as he will receive 90 potential. His notes make him a pretty appealing prospect to look at in the top 10. Typically Erling Platou would be an amazing G-League, 2nd round prospect and is the #67 prospect in the draft, with some great offensive ratings. He does not want to be in the G-League though and will be negatively impacted if he is. If he plays in 65 games though, he will receive 85 potential and a +5 bonus, making it worth it to play him in his rookie year. Finally at #54, Jared Tyrell is a G-League guy through and through and will receive bonuses for awards. He is a fantastic potential pick to be stashed there for a few years.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Earl Lloyd at #5, Landry Shamet at #8, Mel Riebe at #11.
- Sleeper predictions: Wu Chengzhang at #13, Arnie Risen at #15, Tryggvi Hlinason at #32, Daniel Gafford at #59.
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