Post by Rog on Jun 7, 2018 1:48:20 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- Coming in at #1 with a middle of the pack(compared to former #1s) score of 67.4 is Dick Groat. Groat is instantly ruined with notes that do not allow him to be camped. He shouldn't go top 5 just because of how important camping is, however he does have some bonus to his notes given he gets free strength and quickness each rookie contract year. He has a solid rating and is a point guard, but those notes are killer. Draft with caution, if he has potential it could be amazing but I just don't see it personally.
- Hugging Groats ass at #2 with a 67.15 is Cliff Hagan, my personal favorite prospect in the draft. He doesn't have any draft notes but you can just look at his pre draft camp to see pretty clearly that his ratings and stats match up, but he is an all around looking small forward who is 20 years old. He is going to lead the league in rebounds for a small forward one day. His offense is a bit raw and who knows how his defense will stack up when he comes up against the big boys, but he looks impressive and his scores says as much as well.
- At #3 is a bit of a surprise to me, Chuck "Tex" Harrison Is terrible offensively but checks the other boxes. SFs do get a bit of a, maybe unfair, bump. I do think its a bit warranted given the importance of the position at this point though. He is also 18, which shoots you up the board no matter what, especially when paired with A potential. But overall, I think he is ranked way too high and is one of the biggest flaws in our formula, but pretty much the only example this year and I feel our formula is robust and does a good job.
- At #4 is the guy most people seem to have figured would go #1 but ended up going #2, Richie Guerin. I caution people to look too much into his pre draft camp though that people seem to be freaking out about, he played it at PG. However he nearly averaged a triple double and didn't even turn it over a lot at the position you'd think he'd turn it over a ton. He has a tremendous base, is 19 years old, and plays shooting guard, a position becoming less and less saturated around the league. He is a great prospect.
- Rounding out the top 10 is a hodgepodge of prospect that I vary greatly in my like and dislike. At #6 is an offensiveless small forward who I probably would bite hard as fuck on given he is 17 years old and has two years overseas and probably would swing and miss like crazy on as well. He is polarizing to ME let alone the league. At #6 is Kenny Sears who shows D handles and doesn't look great defensively, but has an amazing start offensively and should rebound well from the jump at the 3. Clone him but make him a slightly worse scorer and better passer and you have #7 Jim Baetchold. Neil Johnston is one of my favorite players in this draft, comes in at #8. He has one of the few beneficial notes of the draft and could end up being the 2nd or 3rd best player in the draft if you ask me. #9 Manuel Raga is a favorite as well, he went #3 to the Raptors in what I think is a good match. Raga does have his issues(defense, though finished 2nd All-Defensive in pre draft camps), but he is a smooth stroking 2 who passes the ball to boot. Finally Bill Spivey is one of a few guys that is nearly off limits due to their draft notes. Tantalizing ratings but has the chance to be completely out of the league, not just a small chance, its 50/50! Fun top of the draft.
-There is some more interest later down the draft as well in a few guys. The Bulls got lucky, won the lottery, and then went out and picked #29 Nikos Galis. He surely could end up being ridiclous offensively and I think #29 is far too low for Nikos, but tough guy to pick #1. He looked pretty run of the mill in pre draft camps as well, not sure what the Bulls saw. There is another 17 year old in this class, foreigner Tommaso Felici. He rebounds well and has a decent offensive base for a big, but is a huge risk huge reward pick that I think more set teams will make later down the road. In fact I'm a big fan of the international class this year, so I'm just going to shut up as I think I might want to jump into the draft and snag one.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Dick Groat at #1, Charles "Tex" Harrison at #3, Bill Spivey at #10.
- Sleeper predictions: Richie Guerin at #4, Neil Johnston at #8, Honglin Qu at #23
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