Post by Rog on Jul 15, 2018 5:54:27 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- In no surprise, Elgin Baylor comes in at #1 with a crazy score of 69.35. He was pretty easily the best prospect in this draft in my opinion due to playing SF, being 18, and coming in with solid inside scoring, great rebounding, and decent defense. The formula agrees, and so does his notes, which are some of the best we've had since the switch of how notes were done. He performed well in pre draft camps as well, garnering a 2nd team All-League. His biggest flaw is his shooting, but seems to have decent jump shot and poor 3 point shot, so he might have serious issues coming in. Time will tell though.
- Slightly more surprising is #2. I expected it to be Bob Pettit, but turns out Tom Gola's handles(partly) and defense(hugely) made the difference. Gola also has nice notes, giving to himself as well as others on his roster. He does have raw scoring, but Gola scored okay and made first team all league in pre draft camps, and had a similar spilit like Baylor did with solid FT% and really bad 3 point percentage. Gola could turn out to be a stupid solid role player but might have issues becoming a superstar with his possible scoring issues.
- Behind Baylor, no one has a better shot to be a superstar in this draft though besides Bob Peitt. Pettit gets dinged a bit for his defensive short comings, but still looks like a solid bet to become a star. Pettit has pretty solid notes allowing him 3 camps a season, meaning meaning he gets 4 more camps than any other player, a solid bet to improve him quite a bit. Pettit was surprisingly All-League 2nd team, mostly because he had major turnover problems. He did average 8 assists, so maybe he played a bit out of position, but he does look like a crazy solid #3 pick.
- Number four, Adesio Lombardo, proves why I think handling really unnecessarily inflates our overalls. He looks solid a mediocre prospect but gets a boost up to #4 because of his high handles. He does have solid overall ratings, but I'm not a fan unless he really develops his one part of his game. I think he has a chance to be okay at everything, great at nothing type players that don't work for contenders at the SF position. It is hard to mention him without bringing up the fact that he led the entire pre draft camps in turnovers with 6.4 a game. He has issues, needs to fix them quickly to ever justify a top 4 ranking.
- Rounding out the top 5 is our first point guard, Ayo Dosunmu. He looks overall solid as a player, He starts the drop off in the draft from 4 to 5 in terms of points, last year he would have been #7 instead of top 5. I do think he has a chance to be really solid(hence why I drafted him #6), but will come in with turnover problems it seems and has no notes either. Toss up whether he is worth a top 5 pick though.
- Looking at the rest of the top 10 is a tough game in what is a top heavy draft. Number 6 is John Isaacs, who was first team all league in pre draft camps, but has issues right away offensively. He does have high handling, and passes the ball really well but seriously might have issues scoring. He is also 22. George Grebenstein is #7, a 21 year old SF with C outside. He does show a solid B defense, but who knows how good that really is at this point. At number 8 is a well rounded point guard in Zachary Clayton who is actually a SG. He has C+ C+ B+ offensive ratings and cannot play point guard. He also comes with B+ defense as well and rebounds well for a SG. He is 22 years old as well, somewhat bringing down his value. Frank Ramsey comes in at number 9, a shooting guard who is 22 years old, shoots the ball okay, absolutely gets down and defends, and probably is better off coming off the bench in all reality, looking at his notes. Finally Cumberland Posey rounds out the top 10 at #10. He comes in at 22 years old and C- inside, poking huge holes into the idea that he can be a starting point guard any time. Plus he is 5'6" and can't rebound, shows meh defense. He does shoot and pass the ball really well so if he can overcome his major issues, maybe he can start in this league.
- The international class in this draft is really lacking. There is only 1 player in the top 10 and that is Adesio Lombardo at number 4. Next up is Goga Bitadze all the way down at #12. He is a solid scoring, solid rebounding center who has a ton of time to grow as he is only 18 years old. Then you have to go all the way down to #18 to find Jean-Paul Beugnot, who I think is exceptionally underrated with B- inside, C outside and B rebounding. He has solid size also and showed out in pre draft caps. He was the 2nd lowest rated All-League First Team in pre draft camps, absolutely destroying players with 34 points a game. And he is only 34 with no visible flaw(C+ defense needs to come up). I believe Biram Faye is the last 1st round projected pick here, and he sits at 22. Just a weak international class.
- There has been some talk about this not being a very deep draft, and there is a bit of merit to that. #15 here would have ranked #21 last year, #20 would have ranked #29, and #25 would have ranked #36 last year. Keep in mind last year was a deep middle of the draft for sure. There are a ton of solid later picks here in my opinion with Jean-Paul Beugnot already being mentioned at #18, Glenn Roberts showing up First Team All League in pre draft camps at #38, Borisa Simanic and Jalen McRoberts still showing A potential in the 2nd round, and Adam Mokoka being an 18 year old at #45.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Tom Gola at #2, Adesio Lombardo at #4, Cumberland Posey at #10.
- Sleeper predictions: Jean-Paul Beugnot at #18, Josh Okobie at #26, Jewell Young at #35.
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