Post by Rog on Aug 18, 2018 17:16:12 GMT
So here we go again. Me and Charles have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. Its basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: Only position that didn't get handles de-emphasised. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got less points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip flopped some here and there. Basically the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- This will be relatively short and sweet as I don't have the time today but want to get it up before the draft begins. However coming in with the single highest score we've ever seen for any player that we've done this, is Panagiotis Giannakis. We have never seen a player do 70+ and his score is a solid 2.5 points better than Cousy or Mikan. Who knows what is under the hood(and his potential) but his pre draft camps showed his ratings are fake either as he performed really well. Seriously, someone is going to get the best prospect of the last 10 seasons in this draft and they are international, insane.
- Coming in at #2 is Maurice Stokes. At 6'7", 20 years old, solid ratings(including a crazy A- rebounding rating), Stokes has a rating that would be in contention for #1 in most drafts, this is just a special one at the top. His notes pair him with Jack Tywan, who is a contender for #1 pick after his performance in pre draft camps, so not really something easily activated. He is a solid prospect and a worthy top 5 pick.
- Number 3 is Hall of Famer KC Jones, a solid point guard prospect who does a lot well, but is an absolutely down and down defender. His A- rating is the highest in the draft and it showed really well in pre draft camps. What did not show well was his scoring ability which has to be incredibly worrying for someone taking him top 5. He doesn't turn it over so there is a bunch of good things to build KC JOnes up in your head about, but that scoring really is worrying.
- At number 4 is someone you have to think long and hard about going #1 if you have that pick, and that is Jack Tywan. Look at his pre draft camp to see how much his rating here doesn't reflect what a stud he is. He went off for 40 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, didn't show any percentages weakness, and didn't turn it over. He is absolutely amazing. His C+ defense is a problem but not something that can't be overcome, see Oscar Schmidt. His notes also tie him to Stokes as discussed, making them a bit less valuable.
- Rounding out the top 5 is Larry Costello, another point guard who really looks average to me. He had a good pre draft camp though and shows up here in the top 5. He is a top 7 or 8 pick depending on what goes and what preferences people have positional wise. He doesn't have any notes and not a lot to say about him overall.
- Other interesting prospect to look for in the draft, Jack Molinas at #6 has the ratings for a top 3 pick but being 22 years old hurt him here. He showed pretty well in pre draft camps, but did have issues shooting the three and as some turnover issues. 18 year old Zoran Paunovic has solid notes, fun ratings, and again is 18. Plus the potential FIBA bonuses from any international guys are something to consider as well. He comes in at #7. Modestas Paulauskas is #8, not to finish out the top 10 or anything, but gotta talk about the first 17 year old who is an international player and a small forward as well. He should end up a top 5 pick with his combination of age, ratings, and his notes. Solid as hell. Further down I think Gene Shrue at #17 looks interesting enough, but is 21 and has flaws. Bob Houbrags at #30 is a solid guy to stash in G-League and put up numbers.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Larry Costello at #5, Jack Molinas at #6, Bill Wyatt at #9
- Sleeper predictions: Jack Tywan at #4, Gene Shrue at #17, Kofi Cockburn at #22, and Bob Houbrags at #30
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