Post by Rog on Nov 2, 2018 3:55:59 GMT
So here we go again. Charles and I have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. It's basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: The only position that didn't get handles de-emphasized. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got fewer points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip-flopped some here and there. Basically, the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- Checking in at number one is Bill Russell. Russell is the 2nd highest grade we've seen given out since we've done this behind Panagiotis Giannakis. I still can't believe Panagiotis Giannakis got better overall ratings than Bill freaking Russell, but here we are. I still think Russell is the best prospect we've seen so far, even before you get into his franchise changing type notes here. There are a couple things to worry about, however. First of all, his offense is an issue. And while his defense and rebounding are enough for him to be an absolute stud, he won't be worthy of a #1 pick if he can't score some points, think 12-14 here. Also unlike some other elite prospects in the past, Bill Russell is 21 years old. That is a bit of a red flag to me. Other than that he looks perfect. Should be amazing and those notes almost make it worth it on their own.
- Coming in at number 2 is Win Wilfong, a 20 year old point guard who has issues offensively but looks potentially amazing defensively. Wilfong also probably should be picked in the top 3 to take full advantage of his notes to get his three point shot up. Take full advantage of that and camp his three point shot normally and he might just get to C+ B B- B+ C A and look like a true elite point guard prospect. We'll see how things go.
- Honestly, my true favorite prospect in this draft other than Russell himself is #3 rated Wayne Embry. He has no clear weakness, except his D handles which flat out just doesn't matter unless it indicates he has bad handles and will turn it over. But he shows B inside, B+ defense and rebounding as well. Absolute stud who is also only 19 years old giving him some time to develop further as well.
- Rounding out the top 5 is power forward Willie Nauls and small forward De'Adre Hunter. Naulls is a versatile forward who can easily be transferred to a small forward. If you plan to do that I would heavily scout him and make sure he doesn't have low per defense or quickness, and look too much like a power forward. He is a solid prospect who has a few potential faults but should be drafted highly. Hunter is a surprising high rating here, with a 63.5. His B+ defense very much propels his rating, but to me he looks very average. With C+ B- scoring he just doesn't look very impressive. No notes either. He is only 19 and being a small forward props up his value a bit, I just don't love him.
- Other interesting prospects in the top 10 include Phil Tollestrup at #8 who also looks very boring with B outside instead of B- and B defense instead of B+. Literally just looks like a worse De'Andre Hunter. At #8 is Jim Loscutoff who looks like a power forward, but being a small forward probably is made like a small forward, meaning he won't be good enough to be a power forward, who knows. And at #10 is Si Green, a guy I'd consider pretty high given he looks well rounded and his notes make him eligible to be pushed to point guard, which makes him quite a bit more valuable.
- Just a couple other interesting prospects... Larry BRown at #12 is interesting enough given his ratings(Can a guy starting with D+ inside succeed in a league like this?) but also because his notes make a pretty interesting dynamic for him. The only 18 year old in the entire draft is also staying in Europe for 2 seasons. Yuri Korneev comes in at #13. Obviously I love 18 year olds given their dynamic potential, but Korneev also has interesting ratings(no clear flaws). The latest rated A potential guy in the draft is Ricardo Duarte, a 6'8 center who is 19 years old. He also shows B+ inside and C+ outside, along with B- rebounding for a decent set for a guy rated that late. And finally you don't find a lot of guys with B+ B- offensive in the late 2nd round, however Buzz Wilkinson has exactly that checking in at #56 here. He is severely brought down by his D handles and D+ rebounding. Also showing B potential and you have yourself a guy who fell that far down. I think he should be considered much, much higher than 56.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise, you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: De'Andre Hunter at #5, Phil Tollestrup at #7, and Jim Losecutoff at #8.
- Sleeper predictions: Si Green at #10, Emilliano Rodriguez** at #18, Ricardo Duarte* at #22.
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