Post by Rog on Jan 20, 2019 3:54:17 GMT
So here we go again. Charles and I have adjusted a formula and settled on something we think we really like. It's basically the same idea: A formula that takes a players ratings and makes them into one number based on the letter grades. Remember, we are not getting inside information here, we do not know under the hood ratings. With this, and as we adjust maybe even further with age/height/weight potentially things will get more specific. So here is what we did:
Bigs: Emphasis on inside and rebounding.
Perimeter Players: Emphasis on outside scoring and defense
SFs: Emphasis on rebounding as well as bonuses given to perimeter players.
PGs: The only position that didn't get handles de-emphasized. As much as I think passing is absolutely worthless, point guards probably need their handles high. Otherwise, everyone got fewer points for having high handles ratings.
SGs and PGs: Received a bonus for inside, very slight and quite a bit less than PFs and Cs got. This was due to the need for SGs and SFs to be more balanced of scorers than PGs need to be, but not quite as important to have inside as a big.
Age: We did add a bit of a bonus for young players, although it wasn't huge and didn't change a whole lot except differentiate the top a bit more and flip-flopped some here and there. Basically, the top bonus you could get was 2.5 and it decreased by .5 from there. Seriously not a whole lot different after we applied this, it was just something I felt needed distinguished. Because of this, DO NOT compare these numbers to the first year and say this is a deeper draft, while potentially true, this data is not a reflection of that. Every season since then is comparable, with a slight improvement on SGs and SFs due to the inside bonus.
Other: With a desire to punish crippling attributes, we added negative values. For bigs that means rebounding. For perimeter players that means outside scoring. Basically if a PF or C had lower than C+ rebounding they lost a bit of value. If perimeter players had less than C+ outside they lost a bit of value. The values remained the same originally, then a second input was done where negative values were instilled. The gap between C and B- is bigger than before essentially.
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Thoughts/Ramblings/Analysis
- Finding himself at number 1 is Tal Brody, a point guard out of Israel. Brody comes in with the highest score we've seen, but remember our formula changed last year and the scores are a bit higher than they otherwise were. I don't think hes the best prospect we've had, nor do I think he is the best in this class. However, he is extremely talented with a really good set of ratings for a 18 year point guard. He does not have a true weakness. However with C+ inside and only B outside, he is not a great scorer, but should end up there.
- At number 2 is the guy I figured would be number in Rudy LaRusso. LaRusso has good size, amazing ratings, is only 20 years old, and has solid notes. I think he is the 2nd best prospect in the draft and that was where he was drafted. He does get hurt by him being 2 years younger than Brody, which is probably why he ends up rather than number 1. Solid prospect, good pick at number 2.
- At number 3 is the guy who went number 1 and given a number of things is the best prospect in the draft, Walt Bellamy. His notes help him out in getting some range and blocking some shots. He should end up being a beast offensively and on the boards. He does have some potential issues though. +3 three point shot is not oging to make a difference in the modern NBN. Also his C+ defense means something will be an issue there. Still think he was the right pick at #1.
- Ja Morant looks good in real life, but I do have some issues with his C+ outside. He checks in at number 4. He looks solid overall and should be loaded up with poetntial, but at point guard and starting out at C+ outside, I think hes a bit too highly rated at number 4 because of that.
- Another guy that I thought would end up higher than he did, Evan Mobley checks in at number 5. With B- in his scoring ratings and B in his defensive and rebounding ratings, he looks amazing. He is also 7 foot tall and only 20 years old. He is a solid prospect and deserved to be picked as high as he was in my opinion. Solid player overall.
- I think this draft got a bad name before people took a look at it, but that also could be because of how high our formula is pushing these guys up in comparison to years past. At number 6 is a guy in Guy Rodgers who would have ben a top 3 prospect in years past with his 65.9 rating. He is a bit older at 21 than you'd like for a guy as potentially raw as him. He also has some issues offensively, and is propped up with A- handling, a rating that means jack shit in my opinion. At number 7 is Josip Gjergia, another point guard. He is small at 5'9" and shows C- inside, but with B outside and A- handles, he shows out well with in our analysis. At number 8 is Michael Foster, a 6'8" power forward. He is a more raw, 19 year old power forward version of Walt Bellamy. At number 9 is Gianfranco Lombardi. He is a 6'5", 215 pounds and is a truly good offensive player for a draft pick. He shows B- inside and B outside. He will need to get better defensively and develop other skills to be a star, and he will be overseas for a year as well. Finishing out the top 10 is 6'10" small forward with no muscle, Jaden McDaniels. He is a decent scorer, C+ inside and B- outside, who does everything else okay but isn't great defensively.
- I'm going to mostly skip the other interesting players section here because I think this draft falls off quick. its worth mentioning that two players(both picked by mean) were picked in the top 10 that were 18 and 32 on our ratings. Everyone needs to scout these young guys, there are some steals to be had.
- Here we go with the bust and sleeper predictions. Again, not predicting them to bust or break out, I think these players are under or overvalued significantly enough to be mentioned due to any number of things, sometimes notes mostly. Inevitably someone is going to complain about this, but I've put my disclaimer and otherwise, you can fuck off.
- Bust predictions: Ja Morant at #4, Guy Rodgers at #6, KZ Okpala at #16.
- Sleeper predictions: Tyler Bey at #27, Bennie Swain at #28, and Deni Avdija at # 32.
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